Another respiratory virus from China (Coronavirus Megathread)

NHCraigT

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New Corona Tokyo 472 confirmed infections, the highest number ever
August 1, 2020 20:37New Corona Domestic infections
The Tokyo Metropolitan Government announced on the 1st that it confirmed that 472 new people in Tokyo were infected with the new coronavirus. The number confirmed per day in Tokyo exceeded 463 on the 31st, the highest number so far.
The Tokyo Metropolitan Government announced on the 1st that it confirmed that 472 new men and women under the age of 10 to 90s were infected with the new coronavirus in Tokyo. Of these, 324 people are in their 20s and 30s, accounting for about 69%.

Of the 472 people, about 35%, or 167 people, were close contacts of people with confirmed infections, and about 65% of the remaining 305 people had no known route of infection. about it.

The number of people confirmed to be infected in one day in Tokyo exceeded 463 on 31st, the highest number ever. Infection confirmation of more than 400 people becomes consecutive for two days.

With this, the total number of people confirmed to be infected in Tokyo became 13,163. Also, the number of severely ill patients has decreased from 1 to 31 in 31 days. On the other hand, no one was confirmed dead on the first day.
 

namedpipes

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And since we have to lie to get the second send out. What is wrong with this picture. ?

A few things I believe are true:

1. There have been enough cases to have a verification of antibody and reinfection potential. Yet that data is not being passed along

2. Insurance companies might be/are very glad that certain population ranges have been reduced.

3. Where are the results from trials? This effort should be the best chance of putting a face on Pharma. Why is there not a reality Facebook show which follows the drug makers and science actions 24-7?

3 4. Housing is going to get real interesting in the next three months. Will banks survive the squeeze? Or initiate the squeeze? Is it the best time to buy a house? Or the worst time?


Conclusions: we are in for a ride!!
You'd be surprised by just how little information is actually useful. Yes, hospitals and gov agencies are studying trends and stats. 100% of which is considered protected healthcare information. You'll have to wait for slow grind of government bureaucracy before you see any answers. You will not see them (although much of that is probably known by now) from anyone else. And should not, either.

Yeah, I'm sure some douches in the industry are happy. And just as many are horrified. People suck. I thought we all knew that.

See #1. Work is progressing, you just aren't going to hear much about it until the vaccine starts rolling out of the factory. And as far as Reality TV is concerned, Jesus I hope that was a joke.

Things are so bad right now, what's the difference? Sure, let's have a general collapse of the economy. Better to get it over with now than to get through this, limp along another 5 or 10 years and THEN have another great depression. Make 2020 the year that is deliberately omitted from future history textbooks as being too painful to dwell on.
 

SpaceCritter

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Utter horseshit:
July has become the worst month of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States after deaths rose by close to 25,000 and new cases doubled in at least 18 states. The US recorded close to 1.8m new Covid-19 cases in July, bringing the total to more than 4.5m and deaths to more 152,000.
Um, no:
USDND20200801.jpg

April was far and away the worst month.

As for the Philippines, they're at 19 deaths/M, and getting about 4,000 cases a day (in a country of 100M+ people).

Don't believe a word unless you verify, ESPECIALLY from The Guardian.
 

fshalor

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That's not really a fair comparison, given most of NY deaths were NYC, which is a very different environment (and much more disgusting in terms
of packing people into poorly ventilated spaces) than across entire country of Sweden.

But yeah Sweden is not doing badly compared with the entire US. Arguably they're doing worse in terms of mortality and hospitalization of cases than their Scandinavian neighbors . That might just be a matter of time though, if a vaccine doesn't show up, then they've just front loaded the infection curve compared
to neighbors. But if it does show up by end of this year, the people who have been taking reasonable precautions to avoid getting sick will have come out ahead.
I'm looking forward to a mild cold and flu season, if everyone can just keep their distance.
How is case per Million not a useful indicator of success?
 

1776

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Governments and politicians are no match for the covert spreaders. The strategically located covert speaders are probably three or four layers down and behind the local events and parties that have resulted in outbreaks that will have an economic impact. I hope that the involved hosts and participating individuals (morons) are waterboarded immersion therapied into revealing their contacts. [thumbsup]
 
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SpaceCritter

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Governments and politicians are no match for the covert spreaders. The strategically located covert speaders are probably three or four layers down and behind the local events and parties that have resulted in outbreaks that will have an economic impact. I hope that the involved hosts and participating individuals (morons) are waterboarded immersion therapied into revealing their contacts. [thumbsup]
The time to worry about "contact tracing" was January. Horse is not only out of the barn, but has f***ed the shit out of every mare in the country.
 

Prepper

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Jack Spirko of The Survival Podcast has an open invitation for any medical expert to debate him on HCQ. It is well worth watching the whole Facebook live video, as his rants are great. Not surprisingly, no one is taking up his offer. Perhaps one of the naysayers here will take up his offer. He will even handicap himself during the debate, and he has listed all his points in advance so you can practice responses and not be taken by surprise.

View: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10220330694072529&id=1084736013
 
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I like Jack, and have listened to his prepping podcast for, jeez, almost a decade? But he's not, as a non-expert, going to get an expert to debate him. It's just not worth anyone's time and effort. This sort of "challenge" gets made by armchair experts all the time on whatever topic is hot that day and is a useless rhetorical device.

Think about if you, as a professional space scientist, lawyer, investment banker, HVAC technician, civil engineer, whatever were challenged to debate a complex and ambiguous subject with someone who discovered your field 2 month ago. Would you do it? No.
 

SpaceCritter

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I like Jack, and have listened to his prepping podcast for, jeez, almost a decade? But he's not, as a non-expert, going to get an expert to debate him. It's just not worth anyone's time and effort. This sort of "challenge" gets made by armchair experts all the time on whatever topic is hot that day and is a useless rhetorical device.

Think about if you, as a professional space scientist, lawyer, investment banker, HVAC technician, civil engineer, whatever were challenged to debate a complex and ambiguous subject with someone who discovered your field 2 month ago. Would you do it? No.
The problem is the "experts" have been dead (and deadly) wrong about the virus since it first got out of the Wuhan lab. They don't exactly inspire confidence.

I still hear crickets about the relationship between vitamin D deficiency and susceptibility/severity, this despite (1) several and many papers being published on the subject, (2) the obviousness of it in the empirical case (the numbers and timeline internationally), and (3) the increasing case for T-cell involvement in fighting it (and they rely heavily on adequate D).

The "experts" have failed us. The only ones they've served are the despotic governors/mayors/... imposing their asinine emergency decrees.
 

Prepper

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I like Jack, and have listened to his prepping podcast for, jeez, almost a decade? But he's not, as a non-expert, going to get an expert to debate him. It's just not worth anyone's time and effort. This sort of "challenge" gets made by armchair experts all the time on whatever topic is hot that day and is a useless rhetorical device.

Think about if you, as a professional space scientist, lawyer, investment banker, HVAC technician, civil engineer, whatever were challenged to debate a complex and ambiguous subject with someone who discovered your field 2 month ago. Would you do it? No.
You might want to watch the video.... I know you could not have because Jack also said he would get a medical expert to do the debate if the opponent insisted. He also explained a bit about the dangers of logical fallacies.
 

SpaceCritter

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If there are papers being published on the subject, you don't hear crickets.
Papers in academic journals <> public policy/opinion "informed"

The only good news I'm hearing (here at NES) is docs having patients stock up on D3, so I'm hoping the preponderance of the frontline guys at least are reading those papers.

Edit: a very limited bibliography:

Papers:

Evidence that Vitamin D Supplementation Could Reduce Risk of Influenza and COVID-19 Infections and Deaths

Vitamin D Insufficiency is Prevalent in Severe COVID-19

The Possible Role of Vitamin D in Suppressing Cytokine Storm and Associated Mortality in COVID-19 Patients

Potential Role of Vitamin D in the Elderly to Resist COVID-19 and to Slow Progression of Parkinson's Disease

Vitamin D Supplementation: A Potential Approach for Coronavirus/COVID-19 Therapeutics?

Possible role of vitamin D in Covid-19 infection in pediatric population

Does Vitamin D play a role in the management of Covid-19 in Brazil?

The role of vitamin D in the prevention of coronavirus disease 2019 infection and mortality

Associations between hypovitaminosis D and COVID-19: a narrative review

Role of vitamin D in preventing of COVID-19 infection, progression and severity

Potential role of hypovitaminosis D and Vitamin D supplementation during COVID-19 pandemic

Vitamin-D and COVID-19: do deficient risk a poorer outcome?

Commentary. Eliminating Vitamin D Deficiency During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Call to Action

General:

MedCram: Dr. Seheult on supplements:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NM2A2xNLWR4


On D generally:
Scroll down to "Acute Respiratory Infections"

Vitamin D and Immunity:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5yVGmfivAk


On D3 and K2:
(The K2 keeps the D from dropping calcium into arteries instead of bones and teeth.)

On D deficiency in Europe (but not so much places like Iceland where they routinely supplement):

Editorial: low population mortality from COVID‐19 in countries south of latitude 35 degrees North supports vitamin D as a factor determining severity

 
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hminsky

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How is case per Million not a useful indicator of success?
It's missing a ton of variables.

The deaths per million across the entire country of Sweden are currently about the same as those for the US within 20%. Is the question you're asking
"since we have about the same death rate and they have less restrictive social distancing and school and business closures, does that mean we should do what they do?"

I don't think it's an apples to apples comparison, the US has like 30 times larger population, and It's not like this is over, we're right in the middle, we don't know what percent of our population has been exposed / infected vs
that of Sweden. Other differences in the countries are in how the population is distributed between dense urban and
rural, how many people average live in a single dwelling, how many take public transport, and there are differences in what strain of virus is circulating
with differences in transmission rates, and possibly other effects "Mutated European strain of coronavirus more contagious but less potent"
 

Super99Z

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They're cooking the books with positive antibody tests. Probably the only reason for the latest "uptick". If you go in for lyme or who knows what else, they take a 2nd blood sample and send it off for the antibody test. Positive on that test and bam a new case.
 

Waher

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namedpipes

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They're cooking the books with positive antibody tests. Probably the only reason for the latest "uptick". If you go in for lyme or who knows what else, they take a 2nd blood sample and send it off for the antibody test. Positive on that test and bam a new case.
You go into a hospital as inpatient or show up at the ED and you're getting the test like it or not. But it is so they can keep you separate from people that DON'T have covid.

There's no sinister reason. What bureaucrats do with the results later, who knows.
 

Super99Z

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You go into a hospital as inpatient or show up at the ED and you're getting the test like it or not. But it is so they can keep you separate from people that DON'T have covid.

There's no sinister reason. What bureaucrats do with the results later, who knows.
The covid test sure, which is a nasal stabbing. The anti-body test is drawing blood. If they draw for lyme, they draw two and send one off for the anti-body test so they can count you as a new covid case, sick or not.
 
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The covid test sure, which is a nasal stabbing. The anti-body test is drawing blood. If they draw for lyme, they draw two and send one off for the anti-body test so they can count you as a new covid case, sick or not.
Anitbody tests and resulting positives are clearly seperate in the data.

1596370271707.png

The "Confirmed" case number, which is the big number on the front page is only tests which show virus RNA, which I today is just the nose-swab results. Antibody tests don't go in this number.

1596370596273.png
 
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Super99Z

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Anitbody tests and resulting positives are clearly seperate in the data.

View attachment 377567
The CDC doesn't count them that way. Which do you think the national news is going to quote?


They aren't going to go around to 50 different state DOH's. Just call up the honest folks at the CDC.
 
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The CDC doesn't count them that way. Which do you think the national news is going to quote?


They aren't going to go around to 50 different state DOH's. Just call up the honest folks at the CDC.
This is from May, dude, and they mostly fixed it right afterwards. Today the only problem with this is 5 states that can't be bothered on their end (and don't do many antibody tests). Massachusetts antibody tests are excluded at the CDC level.
 

Super99Z

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This is from May, dude, and they mostly fixed it right afterwards. Today the only problem with this is 5 states that can't be bothered on their end (and don't do many antibody tests). Massachusetts antibody tests are excluded at the CDC level.
Do you have a cite that says they fixed it? I haven't found one.
 
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Do you have a cite that says they fixed it? I haven't found one.
Yeah, it didn't get reported, because who really cares about data if it's not a way to do gotcha politics with it. But on the CDC page they've begun specifying which sections are molecular tests only like:

Using combined data from the three laboratory types, the national percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 with a molecular assay remained stable from week 29 to week 30 at 8.7%.

and

The number of specimens tested for SARS-CoV-2 using a molecular assay and reported to CDC by public health laboratories and a subset of clinical and commercial laboratories in the United States are summarized below:
On COVIDView, Key Updates for Week 29


And their graphic testing tracker(CDC COVID Data Tracker) has a big explainer on it now:

Currently, there are two types of tests available—viral tests (tests for current infection) and antibody tests (tests for past infection). These tests often have different uses, which can present challenges for interpretation. Although antibody tests only account for a small proportion of cumulative testing nationally at this time, it has recently become more widely available, and CDC is working to differentiate those tests from the viral tests.
....
At a minimum, the following states or jurisdictional health authorities have excluded antibody tests in their reports t CDC and the totals above represent only viral testing: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Guam, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, USVI, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
I was going to go through and figure out which states are missing but then I thought, nah. Mississippi and Maine and .... errr....
 

CatSnoutSoup

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New Jersey where if you are a native born small business owner trying too open back up from COVID restrictions Governor Murphy literally has you arrested...


Also New Jersey where if you are an illegal alien Governor Murphy thinks you should be able to obtain a professional license working as an accountant, doctor, dentists, engineer, nurses, optometrist, pharmacist, psychiatrist, real estate appraisers, home inspectors, plumber, electrician, crane operator, etc., etc.



🐯
 

namedpipes

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The covid test sure, which is a nasal stabbing. The anti-body test is drawing blood. If they draw for lyme, they draw two and send one off for the anti-body test so they can count you as a new covid case, sick or not.
You have a profound lack of understanding of the criteria clinicians use in ordering tests.
 

SpaceCritter

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More numbers:

To date the US has had 158000 virus deaths, or 477 deaths/M.

The 1968 flu saw 100000 or thereabouts, or 486 deaths/M.

The 1957 flu saw 116000, or 653 deaths/M.

The Big Ugly - 1918 - saw 675000, or roughly 6536 deaths/M.
 
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