Another respiratory virus from China (Coronavirus Megathread)

TLB

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Elderly residents continue to be disproportionately affected by the new coronavirus in Massachusetts, reflecting what epidemiologists have seen in other countries.

In the last two weeks, the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Massachusetts have concentrated increasingly in people aged 60 or older, according to a Globe analysis of demographic data recently released by the state. At the same time, the proportion of known infections in people under age 30 has dropped.

The overwhelming majority of the 503 deaths related to the coronavirus have been of people aged 70 or older, many with underlying health conditions. One percent of fatalities in Massachusetts have been residents under age 50.


“We’re seeing the real demographic distribution of this disease,” said Dr. Sandro Galea, dean at the Boston University School of Public Health. “If you look at Italy, this is exactly what they had. But in Italy the overwhelmingly higher death rate is really driven by the fact that they had a lot more people over age 80.”

In Massachusetts, almost half of the people who have tested positive for COVID-19 are under age 50. That figure is actually disproportionately low for a state in which 62 percent of the population is under 50, according to US Census figures.

The fact that a large number of young people have tested positive does not surprise epidemiologists, who anticipate that the virus will spread equally over most age groups. But COVID-19 is particularly hard on older people with underlying health issues and waning immune systems.

“It’s really more about who has the complications leading to hospitalization and death,” said Dr. Shira I. Doron, an epidemiologist at Tufts University School of Medicine. “You expect your hospitalization data and your death data to track with age, but you don’t necessarily expect your positive test data to reflect a difference over age groups.”


Even at this point in the outbreak, it remains unclear how widely the virus has spread in Massachusetts. Although the state has significantly ramped up testing in recent weeks, there still has not been enough to provide a complete picture, Doron said.

The state infection data will likely skew towards patients who have had more severe symptoms. Epidemiologists know that some people who have been infected have mild symptoms — or no symptoms at all — and will not be tested for the virus, leaving them out of the state’s tally. The only way to assess the full extent of the spread would be with mass testing of of asymptomatic individuals or blood tests to determine who has developed antibodies for the virus, Doron said.

The Globe’s analysis found that the proportion of confirmed cases in people under 30 fell in the last two weeks from 20 percent to 15 percent. Epidemiologists suggested there could be several reasons for that drop.

First, it could be the impact of social distancing efforts that have kept people at home. It could also be that younger people have more resilient immune systems and are less likely to exhibit severe enough symptoms to merit testing.

At the same time, the proportion of people with confirmed infections over age 60 has steadily increased, up over the past two weeks from 26 percent to 34 percent. Older people may be more likely to be tested because they tend to develop more serious symptoms.


“The reality is that this disease is overwhelmingly a disease that affects people who are older" and have underlying conditions, said Galea, the dean from BU. “Everybody gets this infection, right? But it’s who it impacts and that’s what we really see in the death data.”
 

Jason Flare

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I don't disagree with you and, in fact, I stated exactly that in my response. Perhaps lost in translation.

What I also said, care should be taken before calling something a miracle treatment that should be utilized across the board without understanding the broader implications. If you just want to argue the extremes, then there's nothing really to continue discussing.
Sorry.

I wasn’t trying to argue with you.
 

Jason Flare

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The parents of a friend of my daughter ripped out their microwave oven because they believed it caused cancer because they read it on the internet. They were both college educated, but they never seem to have internalized how science works. It's sooo easy for anyone to make a hypothesis, and usually much much more difficult to test it.
All I’m saying is if someone had cancer and ripped out their microwave to cure it, and the cancer was cured right after the removal of the microwave they would have every right to claim that the lack of microwave cured them.

They would probably be entirely wrong that removing the microwave had anything to do with the cancer cure but so what if they believe it did?

What harm is there to believe chloroquine can cure covid-19?

It is no skin off my patooty if someone believes shark cartilage will work. Good for them.
 

hminsky

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All I’m saying is if someone had cancer and ripped out their microwave to cure it, and the cancer was cured right after the removal of the microwave they would have every right to claim that the lack of microwave cured them.

They would probably be entirely wrong that removing the microwave had anything to do with the cancer cure but so what if they believe it did?

What harm is there to believe chloroquine can cure covid-19?

It is no skin off my patooty if someone believes shark cartilage will work. Good for them.
What if you are giving them a useless treatment in place of a useful one?
 

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We're still seeing accelerating number of deaths from covid19. Hopefully curve flattens out in the next week or so, like it has done in Italy and Spain.
Please, take Italian and Spanish data out of the equation because they do not list people who have died outside of hospitals + many other confusions. We should not go by those numbers. We can get reliable data from Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic. These countries practiced closed borders, social distancing and wearing some form of face protection.



Insufficient and delayed testing may explain why some European countries, such as Italy and Spain, are experiencing much higher casualty numbers (relative to reported confirmed cases) than Germany, which has detected an estimated 15.6% of infections compared to only 3.5% in Italy or 1.7% in Spain. Detection rates are even lower in the United States (1.6%) and the United Kingdom (1.2%) – two countries that have received widespread criticism from public health experts for their delayed response to the pandemic.

In sharp contrast to this, South Korea appears to have discovered almost half of all its SARS-CoV-2 infections. The authors estimate that on 31 March 2020, Germany had 460,000 infections. Based on the same method, they calculate that the United States had more than ten million, Spain more than five million, Italy around three million and the United Kingdom around two million infections. On the same day the Johns Hopkins University reported that globally there were less than 900,000 confirmed cases, meaning that the vast majority of infections were undetected.

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Fresh update from Canada:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the country will not return to normal until a vaccine for coronavirus is developed.

"The initial peak, the top of the curve, maybe in late spring with the end of the first wave in the summer," he said, shortly after health officials projected the pandemic could kill 11,000 to 12,000 people in the country.

"There will likely be smaller outbreaks for a number of months after that. This will be the new normal. Until a vaccine is developed," Trudeau said, adding that Canadians will have to be vigilant for a year.

By the time the pandemic ends, Canada could see between 934,000 to 1.9 million COVID-19 cases, according to projections released by the federal government. So far, Canada has more than 19,000 confirmed cases, 407 have died.
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Self-discipline, the early reaction from public institutions and the country's geographical location at the edge of Europe may be the primary reasons for the relatively mild outbreak in Portugal thus far. In addition, no mass events have been held in the country recently, such as the March 8 Women's Day demonstration in Madrid. And there is a further possible explanation: In contrast to Spain and Italy, seniors in Portugal are generally vaccinated against tuberculosis. A recent study has found a possible correlation between countries where such a vaccine is mandatory and a lower COVID-19 morbidity rate.

Ever since country declared a national emergency on March 18, the city of Lisbon has been unrecognizable. Or, to be more precise, it can once again be recognized as the special place it once was. The tuk tuks are gone as are the drunk tourists on Rossio Square. The souvenir shops have closed, the cruise ships are absent, and the mobs of tourists have thinned out.

There are no vapor trails in the sky, no honking, no laughing and in the evenings, only rarely does one hear a car in the old town. It's just the screeching of the seagulls and, these days, the sound of the wind
 
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Sure, it is, but some of the studies I've seen (no control groups, no healthy people) are far enough from the scientific method as to be worthless.
It's not complicated. Okay, you have lots of people getting the virus and many of them die (let's say it is 3% or something), without any hydroxychloroquine. Then, one day a bunch of doctors start trying hydroxychloroquine and zinc, then they notice now the patients are 99.9% recovering. (I'm not saying those are the exact numbers, but the articles being released so far suggest something as good as this.) Sure, if you only gave hydroxychloroquine to one patient and he recovered, that doesn't show much. But, you keep doing it... and keep getting great results as you add patients. As the number that you do this to goes into the thousands, the odds of this hydroxychloroquine being the reason for it approaches 100%. The % error is a number a statistician can calculate (a bit beyond my skills though).

Sure, I do know you have not eliminated all the variables. I know what a double-blind study is. I used to do this kind of work for 4 years (I was the lead engineer of the software system to manage hundreds of clinical trials) and it has its value (and also can be used to get a garbage drug through that should never have gotten through, but that's another issue). But, there still might be a variable... I know that... maybe the sun started shining brighter right when the doctors started giving hydroxychloroquine and the extra vitamin D did the trick. But then some other doctors are like no eff this we love the FDA, we refuse to give this stuff out... and their patients start dying again... then some other doctor in some other country starts giving hydroxychloroquine and nearly all patients recover. Then, they run out and their patients start dying at a much higher rate. Etc. Sooner or later it has to dawn on you that hydroxychloroquine is almost certainly what is changing here.
 

jpk

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Fascinating graphic of deaths in the US over the past few weeks.
Its pretty cool

Would love to see that on a state by state basis

Or even a US minus NY/NJ and a NY/NJ only

NY/NJ account for over 50% of all Wu Flu fatalities

Looking at the worldometers site

Per 1M population, NY is WAAAAY out ahead of every other state for death rate/million......they're 360

NJ is second at 191

Mass is 6th at 74/million

NH is way down at 16/million

I get that a portion of NY is probably shear volume but.....
 
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I don't understand all the arguments about cloroquine. DJxxxx posted a flow chart from his hospital earlier today showing that if you are an at risk patient with degrading symptoms, they consider you a candidate to get some 'non FDA approved' treatment. (Non FDA doesn't mean you can't use it, it just means that it hasn't passed the rigorous double blind random clinical trials showing that it actually works against the thing the drug company originally said it was good for and got approval for).

So whether it was cloroquine or remdesivir, or something else, it looked like if things weren't improving for the patient, they were getting something. As well as being enrolled in some study to track the progress and results.

Exactly what the back and forth bickering is. They ARE studying it AND they are giving out the drugs.
 

jpk

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It is possible to do science outside of an official FDA-approved study.
Tongue in cheek.....not according to the FDA

I have a friend that works in a pharma facility and it takes then something on the order of almost 2 years to get thru the bureacracy, inspections and testing just to begin manufacture of an existing/approved drug
 

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jpk

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I don't understand all the arguments about cloroquine. DJxxxx posted a flow chart from his hospital earlier today showing that if you are an at risk patient with degrading symptoms, they consider you a candidate to get some 'non FDA approved' treatment. (Non FDA doesn't mean you can't use it, it just means that it hasn't passed the rigorous double blind random clinical trials showing that it actually works against the thing the drug company originally said it was good for and got approval for).

So whether it was cloroquine or remdesivir, or something else, it looked like if things weren't improving for the patient, they were getting something. As well as being enrolled in some study to track the progress and results.

Exactly what the back and forth bickering is. They ARE studying it AND they are giving out the drugs.
If they were to make it avail sooner and patients respond in a manner that is consistent with reports/studies from france, SK, Austrialia etc then more people would recover faster and open up beds/resources for other patients.......not to mention all the PPE that gets consumed each and every day by staff for each Wu Flu patient

According to trump they have millions of doses of it.......why not OFFER it to people in hospital and let them make their own choice
 

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Encouraging comments from AG Barr......really nice slap down of Bill Gates and his fantasy of requiring certs for every person/tracking them......



 

hminsky

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The irony of that place being called "Liberty University" while trying to get journalists arrested is not surprising. Falwell is a weasel.
 

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I don't understand all the arguments about cloroquine. DJxxxx posted a flow chart from his hospital earlier today showing that if you are an at risk patient with degrading symptoms, they consider you a candidate to get some 'non FDA approved' treatment. (Non FDA doesn't mean you can't use it, it just means that it hasn't passed the rigorous double blind random clinical trials showing that it actually works against the thing the drug company originally said it was good for and got approval for).

So whether it was cloroquine or remdesivir, or something else, it looked like if things weren't improving for the patient, they were getting something. As well as being enrolled in some study to track the progress and results.

Exactly what the back and forth bickering is. They ARE studying it AND they are giving out the drugs.

The Ebola Drug
The antiviral drug remdesivir was originally developed by the pharmaceutical company Gilead Sciences to combat Ebola. The drug inhibits the replication of the genetic material of RNA viruses, a category which includes both the Ebola pathogen and the novel coronavirus. The WHO identified the drug in January as one of the most promising candidates among treatment options. Starting in February, this resulted in the launch of studies in numerous places around the world, some of which are offering some hope.

Because these studies are showing initial indications of efficacy against SARS-CoV-2, the European drug authority EMA recommended last Friday that the drug be used as a possible treatment for seriously ill patients. On Tuesday, the Federal Institute for Drugs and Medical Devices (BfArM) also approved the use of remdesivir in Germany for seriously ill COVID-19 patients.

But even with remdesivir, it’s still not completely certain whether it is actually effective against SARS-CoV-2. Health officials in Germany hope to find out for sure in three clinical trials that have been approved by the BfArM. "All patients included in these studies are moderately to seriously ill and are being treated as inpatients," the Institute wrote.

The Antimalarial Agent
Chloroquine, also known by its brand name Resochin, has been used since the 1930s as a preventative measure against malaria. But the pathogens have developed resistance to it and the German pharmaceuticals company Bayer ceased marketing the drug in 2019. The company says it is now "ramping up” production again because there are early indications that chloroquine could be effective against SARS-CoV-2.

However, those findings have been derived largely from experiments with cultured cells. It is believed that the drug can block the coronavirus pathogen from invading cells. But it is still unclear how effectively it can combat SARS-CoV-2 in the human body. The fact that the United States president has been touting it without much reflection doesn’t change such doubts - because even if chloroquine or the closely related hydroxychloroquine are generally safe for patients, in rare cases it can lead to retinal problems, restlessness, sleep disorders and gastrointestinal problems. This risk is only worth it if COVID-19 patients really benefit from taking it.

According to Clinicaltrials.gov, at least 13 studies are either planned or have already been carried out on the substances. The BfArM has also approved three clinical trials with hydroxychloroquine against COVID-19. "In one of these studies, people with mild cases of the COVID-19 disease are treated as outpatients," the Institute wrote. "The other two studies include moderately to severely ill inpatients."
 

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China yesterday declared dogs as companions, not food. Viewed as strong step toward a complete ban on dog consumption, which a survey showed that 70% of Chinese want banned.
Consumption of wild animals was banned recently, and some cities have banned dog consumption already.

 

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Encouraging comments from AG Barr......really nice slap down of Bill Gates and his fantasy of requiring certs for every person/tracking them......
When Trump was asked about this idea at yesterday's press conference he said he thought it was likely unconstitutional and a serious civil liberties issue. Brought up the Patriot Act and FISA, how he was one of the victims. He's not a fan of any kind of tracking system because of the potential for abuse.
 

jpk

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The irony of that place being called "Liberty University" while trying to get journalists arrested is not surprising. Falwell is a weasel.
Think what you will about Falwell but Liberty is a solid school.

The weasels are the ny times/similar shit bags.....they've demonstrated that time and time again
 
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This is what I can't wrap my head around:

They are saying everything is going to peak in 3 days. THREE days. We have 400k active cases, today's numbers were 30k new cases. There are still people on vents from the first cruise ship.

I'd go as far as to say, there are tons more active cases out there that could still require a hospital stay. How can these projections hold any sustenance when the numbers are still going up? I'd still say the backlog of testing is days out at this point. I have not read anywhere that testing is up to date at this point.


There is data/projections in the article that says peak on 4/12.


This is the one everyone likes to post, shows the US peaking now and this is OVER by June 1 with 0 infections and such a low number of deaths to be insignificant (14/day by June 1). I would not be concerned about 14 deaths, that's barely a rounding error on normal deaths per day. I'm not going to look it up, but I bet that many people die every day falling down stairs. How is that possible when there are known cases of deaths after long hospital stays. The actual deaths is lower than the projection, but I just can't see how it tapers off so quickly. If the projection leveled out and stayed at ~1500 a day for a month, that I could believe based on the 400-500k cases sitting out there right now. Unless numbers drop dramatically, we're going to be at 600k confirmed cases in 2-3 days. That will further push the projection to an even later date of conclusion.

I'm no scientist. I'm just a normal semi-intelligent person looking at the facts.

edit: because I always hit post before my brain catches up

Assuming the ~3% of confirmed case death rate (not actual death rate, before someone jumps in) we are going to lose another 12k people just based on today's numbers. Every day at 30k new cases is another 900 people that 'should' die, baring some new treatment plan.
 
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Reptile

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Half billion more people face poverty due to virus - report

LONDON (AP) — Around half a billion people could be pushed into poverty as a result of the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic unless richer countries take “urgent action” to help developing nations, a leading aid organization warned Thursday.

In the run-up to three key international economic meetings next week, Oxfam has urged richer countries to step up their efforts to help the developing world. Failing to do so, it added, could set back the fight against poverty by a decade and by as much as 30 years in some areas, including Africa and the Middle East.

“The devastating economic fallout of the pandemic is being felt across the globe,” said Jose Maria Vera, Oxfam International Interim Executive Director. “But for poor people in poor countries who are already struggling to survive there are almost no safety nets to stop them falling into poverty.”


They want 1 Trillion in debt forgiven.

That seems to be a good reason why not to lend them any more money.
 

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HARRYM

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Not sure if this has been posted yet.


Deninger’s take:

Early on I said here I swear this went through my company in December/early January. Same symptoms. I would really like to see a cheap, quick test, to see what % of the population has the ant-bodies.
 

TLB

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Not sure if this has been posted yet.


Deninger’s take:

Dr. Ben Carson was on TV last night. He stated that it appears that 25 to 50% are asymptomatic or with such mild symptoms that they don't know they have/had it. We need to get a handle on these numbers with serology.
 

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I don't understand all the arguments about cloroquine. DJxxxx posted a flow chart from his hospital earlier today showing that if you are an at risk patient with degrading symptoms, they consider you a candidate to get some 'non FDA approved' treatment. (Non FDA doesn't mean you can't use it, it just means that it hasn't passed the rigorous double blind random clinical trials showing that it actually works against the thing the drug company originally said it was good for and got approval for).

So whether it was cloroquine or remdesivir, or something else, it looked like if things weren't improving for the patient, they were getting something. As well as being enrolled in some study to track the progress and results.

Exactly what the back and forth bickering is. They ARE studying it AND they are giving out the drugs.
i was arguing with a supposed pharmacist on another forum....he said he would NEVER give a non approved drug to a patient.
I asked him "so i you had the virus, and they were about to put you on a ventilator (probably to die), you would not BEG them to put you on hydroxychloroquine?"
He said, "no, i would not want that drug".
Now i do not know if he was bullshitting me, and would crawl with his last breath to the hydroxychloroquine bottle....but that is what he said.
Some people really believe in the FDA.
 

HARRYM

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i was arguing with a supposed pharmacist on another forum....he said he would NEVER give a non approved drug to a patient.
I asked him "so i you had the virus, and they were about to put you on a ventilator (probably to die), you would not BEG them to put you on hydroxychloroquine?"
He said, "no, i would not want that drug".
Now i do not know if he was bullshitting me, and would crawl with his last breath to the hydroxychloroquine bottle....but that is what he said.
Some people really believe in the FDA.
Ya well when I was a kid they decided that butter was the killer of a generation. Eating it in moderation wasn't even a consideration. We had to all switch to margarine. All those fake chemicals, saturated fats, all good stuff......that all these years later they are now telling us sorry....that fake chemical butter is killing a lot more people than butter ever did.
 
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