Another respiratory virus from China (Coronavirus Megathread)

drgrant

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So all those refrigerated trucks they are showing us, they are for food for the all the closed restaurants? A thousand people a day are dying of this which will probably go on for another week or 2. We have 10k people dead in the last 2 weeks. So 25k people dead in a month from Covid alone.

Are you saying this is not an extreme event, we should have just done nothing?
It's an overhyped and overdramatized event. Tons of people die of cancer, heart disease, diabetes every day but we don't have 24/7 news coverage
about it. Maybe they should start the MDN, Medical Death Network, so we can just be immersed in the tragedy of dying people 24/7 regardless of the
cause. [rolleyes] I do think there's a solid argument that doing nothing would have been horrendous.... However, there's also a solid argument that you could have had like 50% less restrictions and likely mostly achieved a similar result. Like let me posit an example of how f***ing stupid unilateral bans are that shut down "unnecessary" businesses. Let's say a guy owns a music shop that like 10 people a day come into to get this or
that. Not exactly likely to be a hotbed of disease transmission but now the guy is forced to close completely. Multiply that by thousands of businesses put in the same situation. Or you have a factory that manufactures widgets but the widgets are deemed non essential. That factory might employ only like 10 people. 10 people who could have probably worked together safely with limited precautions. So now you've f***ed up a bunch of small widget
factories.... for essentially nothing.

Someone is going to say "well it reduces the chances" but yet, all these same people you banned from working WERE PACKED IN THE f***ING GROCERY
STORES 2-3 times at the beginning of the shutdown. [rofl] Which made shutting down a lot of stuff effectively meaningless.

I also think there's a big difference between areas WRT population density. Big dump cities, shut them down? I get it- because if you have people walking around everywhere in Boston or NYC there's just going to be too many people. But in the other 75% of america that isn't in a f***ing BDC? Why should they
be shut down as much as they are? The irony is all of this is validated in the end too- the biggest problem areas for this disease are like 3 big dump cities and their surrounding areas. All places which should have shut down way before everyone else was forced to.

-Mike
 

Spanz

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Spanz

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I'd stick with the Stromectol for humans, since you don't always know what the added ingredients they add to pet meds. Stromectol worsens bronchial asthma though, which seems kind of contradictory.
Other side effects can include Abdominal Migration, Ankle Bearding, Argyle Pattern Baldness, Bearded Thalamus, DIS, or Dissolving Intestine Syndrome, Eye Curdling, Facial Corkboarding, Genital Migration, Gopherism, Honey Nut Areolas, Ingrown Testicle, Involuntary Blowhole, Involuntary Narnia Adventures, Lactose Addiction, Mild Hulkism, Minor Heart Explosions, Nostril Inversion, Phantom Hand Syndrome, Pituitary Ferns, Puckerlung, Pulmonary Weevils, Rectal Hallucinations, Restless Torso Syndrome, Spontaneous Gum Growth, Steven Tyler Lip, Tracheal Meerkat Colonies, Urethral Knotting, Warlock Hump, and X-Ray Hearing.
Ya know, my urethra could USE a little knotting. Bring it on!
 

drgrant

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Well, for starters, you can't catch cancer or heart disease or diabetes from your neighbor or coworker.
There's plenty of people every winter that die from flu complications, and things like bronchitis leading into pneumonia and similar
things like that which involve some kind of transmitted disease. They don't get 24/7 news coverage either. They just get sick, and
die. Admittedly, they probably don't consume a hospital/health system the same way that this corona BS can.


-Mike
 

Jason Flare

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Is the greater NYC area really not able to handle deaths/burials for a couple of thousand people? That seems crazy.
It’s probably similar to the miles of traffic that can back up when an interstate narrows down to one lane.

Many are only prepared for the normal course of business
 

Cowgirlup

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Would you rather when the next Spanish Fly happens people just keep getting together?
(hehehehehehehe)


It's an overhyped and overdramatized event. Tons of people die of cancer, heart disease, diabetes every day but we don't have 24/7 news coverage
about it. Maybe they should start the MDN, Medical Death Network, so we can just be immersed in the tragedy of dying people 24/7 regardless of the
cause. [rolleyes] I do think there's a solid argument that doing nothing would have been horrendous.... However, there's also a solid argument that you could have had like 50% less restrictions and likely mostly achieved a similar result. Like let me posit an example of how f***ing stupid unilateral bans are that shut down "unnecessary" businesses. Let's say a guy owns a music shop that like 10 people a day come into to get this or
that. Not exactly likely to be a hotbed of disease transmission but now the guy is forced to close completely. Multiply that by thousands of businesses put in the same situation. Or you have a factory that manufactures widgets but the widgets are deemed non essential. That factory might employ only like 10 people. 10 people who could have probably worked together safely with limited precautions. So now you've f***ed up a bunch of small widget
factories.... for essentially nothing.

Someone is going to say "well it reduces the chances" but yet, all these same people you banned from working WERE PACKED IN THE f***ING GROCERY
STORES 2-3 times at the beginning of the shutdown. Which made shutting down a lot of stuff effectively meaningless.

I also think there's a big difference between areas WRT population density. Big dump cities, shut them down? I get it- because if you have people walking around everywhere in Boston or NYC there's just going to be too many people. But in the other 75% of america that isn't in a f***ing BDC? Why should they
be shut down as much as they are? The irony is all of this is validated in the end too- the biggest problem areas for this disease are like 3 big dump cities and their surrounding areas. All places which should have shut down way before everyone else was forced to.

-Mike
Yeah, Watching the press conf. last night it's obvious everything is shut down because of the major outbreak areas. Boston is supposed to be next in line so I get why NH is shut down. But if I was in Coos county I'd be mad that everything is closed and some things don't make a lot of sense. The candy store is essential and open but the barber shop is closed. Who decides that? (BTW I did stop in for some pandemic stress relieving dark chocolate turtles)
 
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83,000 people died this year due to flu/pnumonia over roughly a 4 month period of time

Roughly same number as what died of same in 2018 over same period of time

Over the last 2 mos 9700 people in US have died of Wu Flu and the numbers are inflated because they're assuming deaths are Wu Flu without testing in NY, Cali and other places

The stats/models the medical industrial complex talking heads are using are in utter/total collapse due to gross incompetence/crap assumptions/etc.....and politicians have based the shutdown of an entire economy based on crap data.

What are people saying here?

83k deaths is acceptable year after year after year.........but 100 or even 200k deaths in one year is not?

I dont want to see anyone die which is why I've been railing against the crap advice that the same idiots above have been giving for months......

If folks wear masks the xmission rate will plummet

the whole situation is a tragedy that could have been avoided if we had done as SK/Taiwan/Japan and other do wrt mask use......and we could have done it without causing another great depression/printing 5 trillion dollars out of thin air

Folks get upset about 1-200k possible deaths.....we're currently at 9700......and claim we need to shut down the economy to save lives.....this BS is nothing more/less than disingenous virtue signaling

If lives actually mattered to these people then they would rail on endlessly about the 30-85k that die every year from the flu

If lives actually mattered to these people then they would have the foresight to look at how many millions of lives will be ruined in a Wu Flu depression not to mention the massive loss of life that will accompany it.....if folks think healthcare sucks now.....wait until they have no job, no money for food and sure as shit no money for any sort of health care.
I and others have already responded to this. Stop spewing BS.

Flu deaths are both FLU and Pneumonia! Mostly pneumonia. By a factor of like 100-1000 to 1. If you smoked your entire life, are now 80, have copd and get pneumonia and die, you get lumped into the FLU death category. Even though you didn't have the FLU. Same with person who had a regular cold , is 92, gets pneumonia, and dies. Reported as FLU death.

From CDC website: according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), "influenza and pneumonia" took 62 034 lives in 2001—61 777 of which were attributed to pneumonia and 257 to flu, and in only 18 cases was flu virus positively identified. (from cdc site)

Covid deaths are covid deaths. FLU deaths are anyone who is sick with pneumonia.

And they do rail endlessly about the FLU, it is why the push the crap out of getting a flu shot each year, so the mortality rate is not higher. When was the last time your local hospital was overrun with people sick with just the flu, so much so that they couldn't handle anything else. When have they run out of ventilators from just the flu?

This is not 'just the flu'.
 

jpk

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I and others have already responded to this. Stop spewing BS.
Flu deaths are both FLU and Pneumonia! Mostly pneumonia. By a factor of like 100-1000 to 1. If you smoked your entire life, are now 80, have copd and get pneumonia and die, you get lumped into the FLU death category. Even though you didn't have the FLU. Same with person who had a regular cold , is 92, gets pneumonia, and dies. Reported as FLU death.
From CDC website: according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), "influenza and pneumonia" took 62 034 lives in 2001—61 777 of which were attributed to pneumonia and 257 to flu, and in only 18 cases was flu virus positively identified. (from cdc site)
Covid deaths are covid deaths. FLU deaths are anyone who is sick with pneumonia.
And they do rail endlessly about the FLU, it is why the push the crap out of getting a flu shot each year, so the mortality rate is not higher. When was the last time your local hospital was overrun with people sick with just the flu, so much so that they couldn't handle anything else. When have they run out of ventilators from just the flu?
This is not 'just the flu'.
Flu is accompanied by bronchitis and/or pnuemonia the overwhelming majority of the time which is why every health org from the CDC to other nations lumps them together and reports them as one
Same thing happens with Wu Flu......
In one case patient with Flu contracts Pnumonia and dies
In another case patient with Wu Flu contracts Pnuemonia/ARDS and dies
Are you actually suggesting that the former should be separated out as Flu and separately Pnuemonia/ARDS deaths?
But in the second its OK to comingle the Wu Flu and Pnuemonia/ARDS deaths into one bucket?
 

jpk

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I and others have already responded to this. Stop spewing BS.

Flu deaths are both FLU and Pneumonia! Mostly pneumonia. By a factor of like 100-1000 to 1. If you smoked your entire life, are now 80, have copd and get pneumonia and die, you get lumped into the FLU death category. Even though you didn't have the FLU. Same with person who had a regular cold , is 92, gets pneumonia, and dies. Reported as FLU death.

From CDC website: according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), "influenza and pneumonia" took 62 034 lives in 2001—61 777 of which were attributed to pneumonia and 257 to flu, and in only 18 cases was flu virus positively identified. (from cdc site)

Covid deaths are covid deaths. FLU deaths are anyone who is sick with pneumonia.

And they do rail endlessly about the FLU, it is why the push the crap out of getting a flu shot each year, so the mortality rate is not higher. When was the last time your local hospital was overrun with people sick with just the flu, so much so that they couldn't handle anything else. When have they run out of ventilators from just the flu?

This is not 'just the flu'.
Flu is accompanied by bronchitis and/or pnuemonia the overwhelming majority of the time which is why every health org from the CDC to other nations lumps them together and reports them as one

Same thing happens with Wu Flu......

In one case patient with Flu contracts Pnumonia and dies

In another case patient with Wu Flu contracts Pnuemonia/ARDS and dies

Are you actually suggesting that the former should be separated out as Flu and separately Pnuemonia/ARDS deaths?

But in the second its OK to comingle the Wu Flu and Pnuemonia/ARDS deaths into one bucket?
 

SpaceCritter

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Current US daily rate as of 4/4 compared to CDC stats :
View attachment 345424

Note: CDC data (for other causes) is total per year then divided by 365 for the comparison in the above chart.
The problem with that chart is you're taking numbers for Wuhan which is an acute problem RIGHT NOW (and wasn't two months ago, and probably won't be two months hence), and comparing them to annual averages. A great many of those other causes of death likewise have a certain seasonality about them.
 

xtry51

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Flu is accompanied by bronchitis and/or pnuemonia the overwhelming majority of the time which is why every health org from the CDC to other nations lumps them together and reports them as one

Same thing happens with Wu Flu......

In one case patient with Flu contracts Pnumonia and dies

In another case patient with Wu Flu contracts Pnuemonia/ARDS and dies

Are you actually suggesting that the former should be separated out as Flu and separately Pnuemonia/ARDS deaths?

But in the second its OK to comingle the Wu Flu and Pnuemonia/ARDS deaths into one bucket?
I do not think that would be a logical approach. To me the first acquired acute illness should be recorded as the cause if death.
 

jpk

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I do not think that would be a logical approach. To me the first acquired acute illness should be recorded as the cause if death.
I would agree.....suggesting that Flu and pnuemonia/ards should be de-linked/reported separately while Wu Flu and pnuemonia/ards should not be is incoherent
 

vicorjh

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That's correct, it is comparing yearly totals to the current rate of deaths on a daily basis and is why I made note of that. A more valid assessment (against the flu, for instance) would be to gain access to the actual daily stats from the CDC.

Point being, there are still folk running around saying that more people die each day from car accidents so why is this a big deal. It's more a perspective thing and, as an acute event currently, it has certain effects on the ability of the system to respond.
 

drgrant

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Is it your position that doing this has not slowed the spread and saved lives? I'm confused how you would think thats not the case. Certainly human interaction is significantly down.

Also, I'd rather the world overreact to a fast moving novel virus that stand around and do nothing, letting it run rampant. Would you rather when the next Spanish Fly happens people just keep getting together?

I get you're trying to weigh the economic cost to the health/death cost. But that is a Monday QB retrospec. In 6 months, we may look back and say "maybe that was too harsh and faster, targeted options would have been better. Maybe not. Either way you can't make quick, global decisions during the onset of an outbreak and expect those decisions to all be the 100% best course of action when you review it post-pandemic.
I think in not too long the verdict is going to be something like "Some stuff worked/helped" "much was completely f***ing overboard" and " some was not nearly enough or way, way too late to accomplish much. "

Of course one problem is not enough people will be focusing in on how china f***ed us.

For example look at the swine flu bullshit- I think part of the reason that turned into a nothingburger is we had better intel on it, earlier on. It's abundantly clear to me that the Chinese lied about this shit and it was probably floating around the globe a month before they said it was.

-Mike
 

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Hospitals and doctors all over have postponed elective and maintenance healthcare. How many deaths will occur because some issue that could have been diagnosed and treated this spring didn't get caught until the summer? Cancer? Heart disease? Strokes?

Additionally how many suicides, homicides, accidents, and overdoses will be caused by the stress of the economic shutdown.

Also, when numbers decline and people go back to work, what is the rebound spread going to be like?

This thing sucks. I hope humanity takes the hint and does something about overpopulation, because Nature is dropping the clue hard (even if it was Chinese Biowarfare, which should be handled seperatley).
 

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Did you guys see the piece on where Italy donated PPE gear to China a few weeks ago, and the Chinese are now selling it back to them?

Too funny!
 

xtry51

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I think in not too long the verdict is going to be something like "Some stuff worked/helped" "much was completely f***ing overboard" and " some was not nearly enough or way, way too late to accomplish much. "

Of course one problem is not enough people will be focusing in on how china f***ed us.

For example look at the swine flu bullshit- I think part of the reason that turned into a nothingburger is we had better intel on it, earlier on. It's abundantly clear to me that the Chinese lied about this shit and it was probably floating around the globe a month before they said it was.

-Mike
I agree. I said when this first became known we should have closed all international air travel immediately and mandated masks. 99% of problem solved had we done that in early Jan. Most people here thought I was crazy.
 

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Let's see if Chinese communists will sponsor our 2020 Couch Olympics:


In a world in which authoritarian states often act with impunity, it is tempting to forget that the rules-based international order places obligations on everyone. The Peoples’ Republic of China (PRC) is no exception to this rule. International law – in the form of Treaties, Covenants and Charters – places obligations on China, just as much as it does on the democracies of the West. It is without doubt that the early reporting of COVID-19 was slower than it might have been. Early cases emerged between mid-November and early December.

By 27 December, one Chinese doctor had confirmed that the cause of this infection was a novel Coronavirus. By 11 January, seven health workers had become infected, proving beyond doubt that the disease spreads among humans. It was not until 23 January that Wuhan, the source of the outbreak, was put into quarantine. The day before, a Chinese couple had arrived in Italy, to become that country’s first COVID-19 cases. During the run up to the lockdown, five million people – equivalent to a city five times the size of Birmingham – left Wuhan.

Eight days later, the first two cases were identified in the UK. In prospective pandemic scenarios, rapid reporting matters. To contain a virus, swift action based on accurate information is required. Accordingly, the world instituted the International Health Regulations, which require states to provide prompt, accurate and full accounts of emerging infections. This paper makes a convincing case that, in its early response, Wuhan and Hubei breached these Regulations. It also makes clear that responsibility goes to the top of the regime. Accordingly, it appears more than probable that the CCP’s response to COVID-19 was in breach of international law. The Chinese government’s negligence has cost the G7 at least £3.2 trillion (US$4 trillion) – and the wider world a presently incalculable sum. While it appears evident that the PRC is in patent breach of international law, and that this breach contributed to the spread of the disease, it does not necessarily follow that China can be easily held to account. China has for many decades fastidiously avoided forms of international jurisdiction. Yet the field of public international law has developed something of an art form of identifying inventive legal avenues to pursue legal accountability. This paper identifies ten possible legal avenues by which the wider world can pursue China for the damages inflicted by its response (or lack of) to the COVID-19 outbreak. Policymakers may wish to pursue them for two reasons. First, the costs of responding to this pandemic are vast. They extend far beyond the costs incurred by governments. They will have to – at some point – be repaid, presumably by taxpayers.
 
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I agree. I said when this first became known we should have closed all international air travel immediately and mandated masks. 99% of problem solved had we done that in early Jan. Most people here thought I was crazy.
I have to admit, when this first started happening, I didn't believe it either. I had no reason to trust anything in the media or from China, and the Medical Industrial Complex and Media lied.
 
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