Another respiratory virus from China (Coronavirus Megathread)

McReef

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I would not be so quick to call BS on this. There are other similar reports.

Example: "mouthguards" translation = surgical masks
If it is not here in the US it is not at all similar.
 
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that's not my point. My point is the virus probably isn't any more dangerous than the flu. You could save hundreds of thousands of lives quarantining the country every flu season. It's not worth the economic cost.
PSA: This "Stay Home" guidance ins't happening.

I needed to check mail across town this evening (~7). More traffic than I've seen in a few days.
I live by a main road which is humming right along - for almost midnight - on a Wed. - during a 'lock down'.

More traffic now than I saw last weekend.
Opposite here in Maine. The traffic line I can see in the mornings on one of the main lines into Portland from the farmland in the west went to only a trickle the day schools closed.

One car every maybe 20 seconds. Vs continuous stream for 2 hours
 

jpk

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Well, that certainly would have an impact on the % positive increasing.

But again, I would point out that the national trend is an exponentially increasing number of tests being performed. With the % positive staying fairly stable. I.e. as we exponentially increase testing, we find the same number of positive cases per 100 tests. In NY, the number of tests being performed is NOT increasing exponentially. So this needs to be factored in to the decrease in the rate of change of positive cases. If we were expanding testing capacity in NY at an exponential rate, AND we saw the % positive increase, the inpatient/outpatient testing criteria would explain the % positive increase. But the number of test being performed and the rate of increase is a huge variable here that very few are accounting for.
The big states with severe outbreaks like NY, Cali are ONLY testing people that require medical treatment/hospital stay

You show up with clinical symptoms and dont require inpatient treatment then no test.....you get sent home and told to self isolate
 

cmcgraw2

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Report from New Orleans:

Plaquenil which has weak ACE2 blockade doesn't appear to be a savior of any kind in our patient population. Theoretically, it may have some prophylactic properties but so far it is difficult to see the benefit to our hospitalized patients, but we are using it and the studies will tell. With Plaquenil's potential QT prolongation and liver toxic effects (both particularly problematic in covid 19 patients), I am not longer selectively prescribing this medication as I stated on a previous post.
So he's not seeing any miraculous benefits from plaquenil (hydroxychloroquine) up to this point, unfortunately.
 

headednorth

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So he's not seeing any miraculous benefits from plaquenil (hydroxychloroquine) up to this point, unfortunately.
He also is saying not to push fluids which is the opposite of what Ive read elsewhere.

Tons of conflicting info out there. Seems like a lot of agencies are relying on data and/or advice from China as well.
 

Waher

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Atlantis

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The big states with severe outbreaks like NY, Cali are ONLY testing people that require medical treatment/hospital stay

You show up with clinical symptoms and dont require inpatient treatment then no test.....you get sent home and told to self isolate
Yep, which explains why the average % positive in those states is 2-3x the national average. The levels being different can be easily attribute to testing criteria differences.

The CHANGE in the % positive for a given city or region is what is telling, especially/only when you also couple it with the CHANGE in the number of tests being performed. On the whole, the US average is staying stable, despite exponential increase in testing, we are seeing 12.5% positive (+/- 2.5%).

The fact that the % positive in NY is nearly double what it was 2 weeks ago is certainly influenced by the change in testing criteria. But the decrease in the rate of change for daily new cases seems to be a factor of a decrease in daily new tests performed. Not directly due to the virus spread slowing. The % positive trend is supporting data for this thesis.

And really your whole individual responsibility thesis backs it up as well. NYC was just one big politically correct large group orgy. And even recently the social distancing wasn't fully adhered to.
 

Prepper

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So he's not seeing any miraculous benefits from plaquenil (hydroxychloroquine) up to this point, unfortunately.
That is the first negative report I have heard of this treatment. I suspect something is different, but what? Maybe he left out the zinc? Could be almost anything.
 

vicorjh

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I tried to verify this with some searching. I am not 100%, but I think it may be bs.
Could be, Kaiser has disputed that claim:


But, I've also heard some pretty stupid things coming from upper management lately so I wouldn't put it pass them to have told their nurses that at some point.
 

NewGuyRay

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Not surprising to see Putin playing the geopolitical long game with the virus. I wouldn't be surprised to see Russia sacrificing lives at home in exchange for driving a wedge into the EU.

"Russia’s military planeloads of aid to Italy to combat the spread of coronavirus have exposed the European Union’s failure to provide swift help to a member in crisis and handed President Vladimir Putin a publicity coup at home and abroad. "
 

pupchow

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NHCraigT

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American health officials are deeply concerned that the coronavirus outbreak that has overwhelmed New York City hospitals in recent days is just the first in a wave of local outbreaks likely to strike cities across the country in the coming weeks.

In an exclusive interview, Anne Schuchat, the principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said her agency is seeing early signs that the number of cases in other cities are already beginning to spike. While New York City is home to almost half the cases in the country at the moment, other cities are seeing their case counts rising at alarming rates.
"We're looking at our flu syndromic data, our respiratory illness that presents at emergency departments. Across the country there's a number of areas that are escalating. The numbers in New York are so large that they show up, but we're looking at increases over time and we're really seeing some in a number of places. It would be surprising to me based on what I've seen about how this virus spreads if it were not going to increase in many other parts of the country," Schuchat said.

The CDC has deployed about 1,500 of its epidemiologists, scientists and experts to hot spots around the country, including the New York City area and Seattle, where the first American cases of the coronavirus emerged in January and early February. Now, Schuchat said, the CDC has dispatched teams to Louisiana, Wisconsin and Colorado, among others.

Schuchat declined to name the cities that are likely to become the epicenters of new and worrying outbreaks, but New Orleans has stood out in recent days for the rapid growth in cases it has seen. Louisiana reported its first case of coronavirus on March 9; it crossed 100 cases a week later. Its case count doubled between Sunday and Wednesday, when the state reported almost 1,800 cases.

Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) said Tuesday that the pace of growth in the number of confirmed cases in Louisiana was on par with countries like Italy and Spain, two of the hardest-hit nations in Europe where health systems have quickly become overwhelmed and doctors are having to make gut-wrenching decisions about rationing care.

Colorado reported nearly a thousand cases of the coronavirus on Thursday, twice as many as it had confirmed on Sunday. Wisconsin's case load had grown from 385 on Sunday to 585 on Thursday.

Along with hard-hit New York, with some 30,000 confirmed cases, the epidemic is spreading more broadly. New Jersey has reported more than 4,400 cases. California, Michigan and Washington have all confirmed more than 2,000 cases, and Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania had all recorded more than 1,000 cases, according to state health laboratories compiled by The COVID Tracking Project, a group led by the journalist Alexis Madrigal.

The CDC is using one of its most reliable indicators to provide early hints about where the next epidemics might spring up. A surveillance system designed to detect sudden upticks in patients who report flu-like symptoms at emergency rooms across the country, built over decades into a system that presents data in almost real time, was the first alarm bell that rang in New York. Those who reported flu-like symptoms, it turned out, were instead victims of Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

Now, that same surveillance system is flashing red lights in many states, a potential sign that coronavirus patients are already visiting hospitals, even if their symptoms are not severe enough to warrant overnight stays.

"There's just dozens of places we're watching," Schuchat said. "We really need to expect that the whole country's at risk here, and we have to look across our health care system within each jurisdiction to have them be as strong as possible."...

... "I think what we're seeing in New York City and New York State right now is a real warning to other areas about what may happen or what may already be starting to happen, and these efforts to make sure that our health care system's ready and that we can protect the most vulnerable before we ease up on the social measures that are in place," she said. "The measures are meant to be used in a layered way, and it may be possible that selected ones might be eased up on. But as I talk to colleagues around the world who are facing different stages of this epidemic, I think we are all trying to make sure we have the very best information about how to ease up and also about how to minimize the unintended consequences, the negative consequences of the mitigation effort."....
 

NHCraigT

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CONCORD, N.H. —
Gov. Chris Sununu is telling all Granite Staters to stay home and ordering nonessential businesses to close in an effort to slow the spread of COVID-19.

The stay-at-home order will take effect Friday night at 11:59 p.m., Sununu said. Nonessential businesses must close by the end of Friday, he said.

Sununu noted that this is not an order to in place, something he said he does not have the authority to do. He said no one's prevented from leaving their homes, transportation isn't shutting down, and the state's borders are not closed. All state beaches on the Seacoast will also be closed effective Friday night.

"No governor can shut down their border," Sununu said.

Businesses that will remain open include gas stations, grocery stores, pharmacies, banks and laundromats. In addition to bars and dine-in restaurants that have already closed, gyms and entertainment venues were told to close.

The governor said the order will be in effect until May 4.

"The worst may still be ahead of us," Sununu said. "It will take sacrifice, but New Hampshire is resilient, and we will get through it."

He said the moves will align New Hampshire with other states in the region that have issued similar orders.

Remote learning will also be extended to May 4. Sununu said extending this timeframe will allow teachers to plan ahead for the coming weeks.
 
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