Another respiratory virus from China (Coronavirus Megathread)

NHCraigT

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UK News:
Millions to be told 'stay at home' if coronavirus spreads: ANYONE with flu-like symptoms could be told to stay off work for a fortnight under dramatic new plans – as SIXTH Briton is infected after Alps trip
  • People suffering flu-like symptoms could be ordered to 'self-isolate' for fortnight
  • The NHS could stop testing patients once the number of UK cases reaches 100
  • Hospitals in the UK have made designated 'isolation pods' to stop spread of virus
  • Sixth Briton has tested positive after staying at Les Contamines-Montjoie resort
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Broccoli Iglesias

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TLB

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This isn't Ebola. I'm convinced the world will move to mitigation instead of containment before the economic pain really hits. It appears China is already acknowledging this reality. I also believe China f***ed up early on when containment was still realistic and then tried to put the cat back in the bag once it was too late to...yep...save face.
 

pupchow

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Interesting case today in Japan....

a man in his 60s who initially had a cold on Feb. 3, followed by a fever of 39° C. on Feb. 8, and then pneumonia on Feb. 10. He had traveled to Hawaii from Jan. 28 to Feb. 7.

So.....where did he get it and WHEN did he become symptomatic of COVID-19?

I suppose its possible he didnt get Wuhan until AFTER his return from Hawaii......but if he contracted it IN Hawaii or on return FROM Hawaii (on plane) that means its likely in Hawaii.......or some other traveller had spread wuhan on the place from a previous flight/leg and he got it on the plane

Any way you slice this it sounds like a hot mess/likely to develop into an outbreak along that chain of travel soon.....
 

jpk

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Smart companies right now should be looking at how they would/could bring manufacturing/supply of various products back to the US to prevent interruptions in supply chain and production.

Energy for the most part will not be an issue in the US as we produce our own/refine our own petroleum products

Parts for some automobiles and trucks may become an issue

Pharmaceuticals, particularly inexpensive antibiotics and others are made overseas in China, India and elsewhere

Food shouldnt be an issue beyond inconveniences/fresh vegetables/fruits that we get from various countries but we make/grow enough staples here at home.

All of this assumes that we dont see major outbreaks here in the US that result in quarantines/etc
 

Mountain

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They are also prolific spitters, at least the men are, can't speak for women so much. A fair amount of Chinese men lay a loogie in the urinal before relieving themselves (enough that I notice it).

I realize that it is a cultural thing, but it annoys me something awful. It is not the act, but the sound of hacking up a lung and the loud spitting noise that does it.

It happens enough, that I have seen signs in english (and Chinese) that say "no spitting" over the urinals.
One of my trips to Shanghai involved a somewhat unexpected surprise. We pull up to a stop light in a nice part of the Hongqiao area and next to us is a nice black Range Rover. Window comes down to reveal a somewhat attractive local lady, who then proceeds to hack up and spit on the road one of the most impressive loogies I have ever seen. Boss says, 'TIC' (this is China...). [rofl]

The public spitting was a big enough issue that getting people to stop was incorporated into negative impact on social credit scores. Big Brother is watching, and if you are caught spitting in public it could cost you a demerit.
 

jpk

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These people are idiots

The guy was clearly in a contagious state of the disease and was staying in a hotel

That means other people handled a multitude of items that he was in contact with

Everything from the people who cleaned his room, to people who handled the laundry/sheets/towels he used to plates and utensils he ate off of.

All points of contact that the health dept morons fail to even mention as a concern/contact to monitor

Because all of those same service industry worked similarly have contact with hundreds of other travelers in the same way.....preparing their rooms, cooking meals yada yada yada

It doesnt take much in the way of critical thinking skills to come up with this shit and explain how it is transmitted and why TRAVEL is the greatest risk/threat for passing this disease
 

TLB

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Smart companies right now should be looking at how they would/could bring manufacturing/supply of various products back to the US to prevent interruptions in supply chain and production.

Energy for the most part will not be an issue in the US as we produce our own/refine our own petroleum products

Parts for some automobiles and trucks may become an issue

Pharmaceuticals, particularly inexpensive antibiotics and others are made overseas in China, India and elsewhere

Food shouldnt be an issue beyond inconveniences/fresh vegetables/fruits that we get from various countries but we make/grow enough staples here at home.

All of this assumes that we dont see major outbreaks here in the US that result in quarantines/etc
I think the vast majority of goods would take too long to catch up. And I don't think the appetite will be there if what we think we know about the virus holds true. I suspect containment attempts will continue in the short term. But, China will open their factories back up (for economic reasons - which I think I read is already starting) and then move to a mitigation model. Other countries may continue with containment for awhile depending on the cases they have. If we can get to the summer season and this thing is less virile, that will buy some time for vaccine development. I think it's very likely this thing goes seasonal and jacks up flu deaths even more. Hopefully, a vaccine takes a bite out of that eventually.
 

In God We Trust

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Smart companies right now should be looking at how they would/could bring manufacturing/supply of various products back to the US to prevent interruptions in supply chain
Tinfoil alert: isn’t this what Trump has wanted? What better way to convince people that paying more for domestically produced stuff is a good idea?

I think since we are basically in a Cold War with China, they should not have so much control over our economy.
 
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jpk

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This isn't Ebola. I'm convinced the world will move to mitigation instead of containment before the economic pain really hits. It appears China is already acknowledging this reality. I also believe China f***ed up early on when containment was still realistic and then tried to put the cat back in the bag once it was too late to...yep...save face.
Its not ebola...ebola has a fatality rate of around 50%

This disease however appears to be difficult for people to kick.......we have 15 reported casses here in the US since roughly the middle of Jan......and only 3 of those 15 have reportedly "Recovered"

There's a significant cost/impact associated with illnesses that take a long time to get over.....not just in terms of health care costs
 

TLB

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Its not ebola...ebola has a fatality rate of around 50%

This disease however appears to be difficult for people to kick.......we have 15 reported casses here in the US since roughly the middle of Jan......and only 3 of those 15 have reportedly "Recovered"

There's a significant cost/impact associated with illnesses that take a long time to get over.....not just in terms of health care costs
I agree, which is why I think the procedure here will be go home and stay home. Call us if you have these symptoms.... Trouble breathing, etc.

But, we still need a lot more data from better sources.
 
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jpk

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Tinfoil alert: isn’t this what Trump has wanted? What better way to convince people that paying more for domestically produced stuff is a good idea?

I think since we are basically in a Cold War with China, they should not have so much control over our economy.
Here's the truth about our relationship with china

China has been at war with us for DECADES.....shots havent been fired yet but.....they're entire nations actions are geared towards a military/economic attack/subversion against the US......

Trump is the first president to actually acknowledge it let alone DO SOMETHING about it.

China is in point of fact the greatest existential threat to the US that currently exists....my opinion only.....
 

jpk

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I agree, which is why I think the procedure here will be go home and stay home. Call us if you have these symptoms.... Trouble breathing, etc.

But, we still need a lot more data from better sources.
The problem with this is expecting that people will voluntarily do the right thing

There are well documented examples already of "super spreaders" in Hong Kong and the UK.....heck there was a story about a Chinese surgeon that worked for 3 days with a fever......he KNEW he was sick and continued to perform SURGERIES.......
 

xtry51

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If you look at Singapore data, 6-7 day doubling of cases. If you take that data point, which is likely better then data from China and apply it backwards to china data from first reports their numbers get scary.
 

In God We Trust

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The problem with this is expecting that people will voluntarily do the right thing

There are well documented examples already of "super spreaders" in Hong Kong and the UK.....heck there was a story about a Chinese surgeon that worked for 3 days with a fever......he KNEW he was sick and continued to perform SURGERIES.......
Keep in mind also that some people just want to watch the world burn. I can see some a**h*** spreading this on purpose.

if there is not a .gov ordered quarantine, how many of us can afford to live for 3 months without a paycheck? The bills are not going to stop and my landlord doesn’t care about a pandemic. I imagine The phrase “f*** you, pay me” will be used quite a bit.
 

jpk

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Why have 2/3ds of the Aussie cases recovered while only 3 of 15 US cases have recovered?

None of the cases in either country are listed as "Serious"


Are the aussies doing something different?
 

jpk

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Keep in mind also that some people just want to watch the world burn. I can see some a**h*** spreading this on purpose.

if there is not a .gov ordered quarantine, how many of us can afford to live for 3 months without a paycheck? The bills are not going to stop and my landlord doesn’t care about a pandemic. I imagine The phrase “f*** you, pay me” will be used quite a bit.
I suspect that we will see some protections put in place at some point....I have a hard time seeing a trump fed gov just letting shit burn wrt some of this

Maybe I'm wrong.

Based on what we've seen recently wrt attacks on trump supporters....particularly from those in the sanders camp......It not hard to imaging an infected bernie supporter pulling some stunt.....based solely on past actions of these people......
 

drgrant

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This isn't Ebola. I'm convinced the world will move to mitigation instead of containment before the economic pain really hits. It appears China is already acknowledging this reality. I also believe China f***ed up early on when containment was still realistic and then tried to put the cat back in the bag once it was too late to...yep...save face.
Ebola is "boring" compared to this, though... in the way it propagates, etc.
 

Broccoli Iglesias

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jpk

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If it gets bad in the states its the not so much that people isolate themselves like most here can, its going to be the secondary stuff like the grid and food/med delivery that will be slowed or could be shut off. Lets face it the grid guys might say screw going out and taken a chance of picking up some snot shot on a gas pump or a door knob.
Same with the trucking guys they may say "yep not today" and trucking grinds to a stop. So yes I see the virus itself being a issue but its the side effect that will result in a "grid down" situation.
Plus water company being at there post, I could go on but its all of us who work in these trades who will say, ya not worth it.
 

TLB

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Why have 2/3ds of the Aussie cases recovered while only 3 of 15 US cases have recovered?

None of the cases in either country are listed as "Serious"


Are the aussies doing something different?
The recovered data everywhere seem like garbage to me. Not sure if they are afraid to make the call or what....
 

hminsky

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I would have thought our toilet paper was made in the USA , given how many trees and big pulp companies there are (or used to be). I find it hard to believe that really been outsourced to China? I suppose its possible that environmental protection laws here made it cheaper to manufacture overseas, but I'm skeptical.


Anyway, I think people are overthinking the China supply chain problem; even if 2% of their population is gone (and it seems like that is skewed to
elderly or already sick), they're not going to shut their economy down. They really seem to like making $ over there, regardless of the supposed communist government. The shutdown is an attempt to confine the virus, and if that fails, they'll just proceed with the assumption that it's
going to spread where it will. Yes there might be some delays, due to their probably overblown and too-late attempts at isolating the spread, but they aren't going to have their workforce idle for long.
 
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Racenet

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I’ve got hand surgery for Viking disease scheduled in 3 weeks at the hospital in Wilmington. Sure hope it hasn’t hit by then because I sure would like my left to hand back to normal if SHTF. I mean, it works now but having 2 fingers folded up sort of sucks
[laugh2]

Can't spell Dupuytren's contracture, can ya. (j/k)
 
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