Another respiratory virus from China (Coronavirus Megathread)

namedpipes

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What do you do with all the chicken if we lose power?

I'm sure you have a generator, but how long will it last?
Assuming you mean extended or "permanent" power outages, I'll be feasting on meats and making as much jerky as I can.
If you mean short term or sporadic outages that will not be a problem.
 

Varmint

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As unpleasant as it is to think about, and at the risk of sounding like some sort of globalist environazi, this sort of thing might be a net positive for humanity long term if it shakes out the weak but doesn’t mutate and take out everyone.
As a weed I can't say I'm onboard
This stuff is not often talked about as it can be a very fine line to walk, but you can look back on most of humanities darkest times and find positive impacts that most likely would never have occurred otherwise. It is unpleasant to think about, yes, but you speak the truth. Like @teaser452 alluded to, the bubonic plague played a huge role in profoundly reshaping society in a positive way. It just did so at a terrible cost.
It is nature's way, you need a forest fire to restore balance now and then. The way our governments pay the poor to have 12 kids, and deflate currencies to create huge wealth divides, makes things very unbalanced.
 

Varmint

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But back then the measurent of we wealth we very different. What about now? Its not so much land based etc.
wealth today is very paper-based, but that is rapidly changing, because the elites know when currencies collapse, it goes back to traditional wealth - land, gold, fine art, collectibles etc. Trade that worthless fiat for hard assets as fast as you can. The elites are buying up land.
 

Varmint

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No, not at all.

Talking about this would be an interesting conversation if the people who were posting in this thread stopped with the bullshit.

This is not a good thing to catch. That said when looking at numbers and cases provided indicate that this thing typically kills people who have compromised immune systems and or other major underlying health issues. It's SARS 2.0 or some shit, or as they say "severe."

But, nothing I can do. I suspect a bunch of people will spend a shit load of money though as a result of this thread. Just like the people have done in the past via other doomsday threads, and even occasionally someone is brave enough to admit how much money was wasted and how in one case all the items they bought for impending doom spoiled.

NES is just about ready for flat earth threads. [rofl]
The mask orders they cancelled on me haven't cost me anything.

the virus sounds like a wolf, it targets the ill and weak, (and smokers.) The wolf makes the elk herd stronger and healthier.

it may sound cruel, but the human race has a choice of pain now, or greater pain later.
 

Mountain

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I read that a major trade show was cancelled in Spain recently. I imagine many of them are being cancelled all over which the NES brain trust will surely fill us in on.


I’ve got hand surgery for Viking disease scheduled in 3 weeks at the hospital in Wilmington. Sure hope it hasn’t hit by then because I sure would like my left to hand back to normal if SHTF. I mean, it works now but having 2 fingers folded up sort of sucks
I think you'll be OK for the surgery. Pinkie and ring finger? Seems like those surgeries are very successful. I have a few older friends from Viking stock- one of them had the surgery and is back to normal. My wife is mostly Norwegian so my kids should probably keep watch for it when they get old.

China travel ban was obvious for us. I was a little surprised how quickly my company banned travel to SE Asia, but with cases in Vietnam maybe not a surprise. Those Russian escapee cased came from Hainan, which is like China's version of Hawaii and is very close to Vietnam. Lots of Russians vacation there. I was in Hainan for a week long meeting and the hotel was bilingual- Chinese and Russian.
 

Varmint

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The big Camera and Imaging Products show in Japan was cancelled a couple days ago. Plausible that the olympics won't happen. Not going to say probable, but certainly plausible. Haven't confirmed true, but I hear an electronics trade show / conference in Europe was cancelled. I have what's the major conference for my industry coming up soon in Germany. Wondering if that's going to happen.

A friend I trust told me today that she spoke with a missionary friend in China two days ago. No surprise, the situation in Hubei province is much worse than reported. Other regions not having the same impact yet.
companies are canceling any events where you'd have people coming from China. They will come up with excuses like cost cutting but they just don't want the infested coming over. In our PC world they don't want to say "No Asians" so they just cancel.
 

Devils Paintbrush

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They are also prolific spitters, at least the men are, can't speak for women so much. A fair amount of Chinese men lay a loogie in the urinal before relieving themselves (enough that I notice it).

I realize that it is a cultural thing, but it annoys me something awful. It is not the act, but the sound of hacking up a lung and the loud spitting noise that does it.

It happens enough, that I have seen signs in english (and Chinese) that say "no spitting" over the urinals.
 
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NHCraigT

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... The only open question at this point is how badly its going to f*** up china in the end....
The other questions is how bad its going to "domino" and f*** up the US economy and other country's economies that buy & import so much from China.
(example: There are a lot of US factories and other country factories that purchase parts/materials to assemble their products ... from China)

Other example: Vietnamese workers fear possible lay offs as epidemic continues
 
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NHCraigT

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Los Alamos National Laboratory: The Novel Coronavirus, 2019‐nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated
Scientific Report. Created: 2/09/20 Author: L317378


The 2019 novel coronavirus is highly infectious

Abstract
The novel coronavirus (2019‐nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high‐resolution real‐time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus. One‐sentence summary By collecting and analyzing spatiotemporal data, we estimated the transmission potential for 2019‐nCoV. ....
 
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Cowgirlup

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I will guess false recovery.

If it was a mutation, are other people getting infected with the mutation and then its mutating again? ... how fast and how many times can it mutate? ... and how could anyone ever find a cure if that is the case.

It just seems a little extreme that people recover, then get infected again and just drop dead. But again, this is all coming from China so it could be all BS for all we know or the people dont recover, their fever might just go down.

They have barely figured out the incubation period or if people can or cannot transmit it while showing symptom but they know that it can re-infect people? ... sure.

Also, I want to know the health of the people that supposedly get "re-infected" and drop dead. What pre-existing conditions did they have?

There are so many unknowns, and so much bad information out there, I find it hard to believe anything.

I was thinking about this. If this was a bioengineered virus, it would be smart to have a 2 phase attack. If the reports are true that there are strains of AIDS virus in this mix the first virus could start a cytokine storm and the treatment may include immune suppressants, then phase 2 wipes out your immune system completely. This is total speculation on my part.

But I am relating this to tick transmitted infections. I know COVID19 is a virus and not a bacteria so not the same thing. But, Usually when I get a tick bite I will end up with Anaplasmosis within 7 to 14 days. Lyme will not show up until about 30 days because it reproduces slowly and hides in the body.

Here is some info about that just to explain what I'm talking about.
Borrelia burgdorferi has an in vitro replication cycle of about seven days, one of the longest of any known bacteria. Antibiotics are most effective during bacterial replication, so the more cycles during a treatment, the better. Since the life cycle of Streptococcus pyogenes (the bacterium that causes strep throat) is about eight hours, antibiotic treatment for a standard 10 days would cover 30 life cycles. To treat Lyme disease for a comparable number of life cycles, treatment would need to last 30 weeks.


If someone was going to engineer a virus, a Trojan horse situation would be most effective. Or maybe all the bat, dog and monkey viruses blended. Viruses want to survive. They are living things. I'm not claiming they are intelligent life forms but they do know how to hide, adapt or whatever to survive. They don't care if they kill they host. They only need you to live long enough to pass the infection.
 

In God We Trust

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Interesting article about viruses. Did you know 10% of Europeans are immune to HIV? It might be because their ancestors survived the Black Death.

 

xtry51

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That is some next level tinfoil.

Also pro tip for real Chinese dissidents if they exist. Don't type personal identifying traits in your ghost letters. How many party officials do you think would have a doctorate from a western country, a wife, one son and speak excellent English? Think the CCP wouldn't just print out a list and kill all of them Soviet Purge style to be sure?
 

NHCraigT

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States the R0 is somewhere between 4.7 and 6.6?????!!!!!!
That is what the report says.

I think it may be a theoretical, mathematical-based research document.

Take it for what its worth, it is just "one" report.

FWIW Its also listed here:
 
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sieveboy

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They are also prolific spitters, at least the men are, can't speak for women so much. A fair amount of Chinese men lay a loogie in the urinal before relieving themselves (enough that I notice it).

I realize that it is a cultural thing, but it annoys me something awful. It is not the act, but the sound of hacking up a lung and the loud spitting noise that does it.

It happens enough, that I have seen signs in english (and Chinese) that say "no spitting" over the urinals.

yeah, WTF with the spitting to get urine going? Indians do it too.
 

mtnbiker26

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The other questions is how bad its going "domino" and f*** up the US economy and other country's economies that buy & import so much from China.
(example: There are a lot of US factories and other country factories that purchase parts/materials to assemble their products ... from China)

Other example: Vietnamese workers fear possible lay offs as epidemic continues
I work in specialty sporting goods retail and like 95% of what we sell and service comes from China and Taiwan. Parts, accessories and apparel are almost all from China. We make our money in the summer and just scrape by in the winter. Wouldn't be good for the company (and the whole industry) if we have a supply shortage during our busy season and miss a lot of sales opportunities. Also, due to a strong economy, tons of new technology and trends and an older, wealthier demographic for the past few seasons, we're seeing a lot of growth on high-end items ($5k - $10k) that would be considered "toys" or "frivolous" by most people. I would expect a pretty a huge drop-off in that segment if the economy goes bad.
 

drgrant

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That is some next level tinfoil.

Also pro tip for real Chinese dissidents if they exist. Don't type personal identifying traits in your ghost letters. How many party officials do you think would have a doctorate from a western country, a wife, one son and speak excellent English? Think the CCP wouldn't just print out a list and kill all of them Soviet Purge style to be sure?
All of that is true (it would be stunningly easy to figure out who the guy was, with the right information) which is even more of an indicator of it being fake.

-Mike
 

drgrant

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The other questions is how bad its going "domino" and f*** up the US economy and other country's economies that buy & import so much from China.
(example: There are a lot of US factories and other country factories that purchase parts/materials to assemble their products ... from China)

Other example: Vietnamese workers fear possible lay offs as epidemic continues
Yes, there's a bunch of massive dependencies there.... and only so many players will be able to weather whatever storm exists.

-Mike
 
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