Another respiratory virus from China (Coronavirus Megathread)

TLB

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That wasn't really the comparison. They compared how contagious this virus is to H1N1 and specifically the fact that you are fairly contagious even without symptoms. This results in a virus that is very difficult if not impossible to stop, and eventually we should expect widespread community transmission. The SARS strain was quite a bit more lethal, at the moment this falls somewhere in the middle. I think its important to note that he specifies different fatality rates for Wuhan, for elsewhere in china, and for the rest of the world. This indicates that the severe cases (15-20%) are not certain death, but depend on proper healthcare.

It's a numbers game, if everyone gets it, then eventually the mortality rate approaches a maximum as healthcare becomes overwhelmed.

Do not confuse the fact that it BEHAVES like the H1N1 flu with it being it being biologically similar. It is a different family of virus and flu medication will likely have zero positive effect on it.
First off, he asked a semi snarky question, so I gave a semi snarky answer.

IMO, this will spread around the world and be part of seasonal flu. Then no one will care, just like people aren't freaking out about the high H1N1 component to this year's seasonal flu. We have over 10,000 dead In the US from this year's flu. The current possibly slightly higher death rate could be simply because it is new and we have no built in immunity to it.
 

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First off, he asked a semi snarky question, so I gave a semi snarky answer.

IMO, this will spread around the world and be part of seasonal flu. Then no one will care, just like people aren't freaking out about the high H1N1 component to this year's seasonal flu. We have over 10,000 dead In the US from this year's flu. The current possibly slightly higher death rate could be simply because it is new and we have no built in immunity to it.
I want to believe this I really do. But how do you possibly explain China's actions? If it was "just the flu" they wouldn't be locking down ever more cities, keeping factories shut down, and spraying disinfectant in the streets. I mean these are indisputable facts. It's not a conspiracy, its literally happening right now. So how do you reconcile those facts with your assertion that this will just become "part of the seasonal flu".
 

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First off, he asked a semi snarky question, so I gave a semi snarky answer.

IMO, this will spread around the world and be part of seasonal flu. Then no one will care, just like people aren't freaking out about the high H1N1 component to this year's seasonal flu. We have over 10,000 dead In the US from this year's flu. The current possibly slightly higher death rate could be simply because it is new and we have no built in immunity to it.
I think people are going to care. If this thing makes someone merrily walking around drop dead of a heart attack, they'll care. If catching it once means the second time you catch it, you'll have no immunity and will get it much worse and die, people will care. That's what it is looking like this thing does.
 

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NHCraigT

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I want to believe this I really do. But how do you possibly explain China's actions? If it was "just the flu" they wouldn't be locking down ever more cities, keeping factories shut down, and spraying disinfectant in the streets. I mean these are indisputable facts. It's not a conspiracy, its literally happening right now. So how do you reconcile those facts with your assertion that this will just become "part of the seasonal flu".
In line and in agreement with the above statement, here's some supporting logic-based reasoning, that was posted on another forum:

... We are talking about a country where almost 184-1,223 deaths per 100,000 population die of pneumonia every year.They have not asked for this kind of help,ever. To put it another way. 2.5 million-16.9 million die of pneumonia every year in China.
[link to journals.plos.org (secure)]

So why do they need help if only around 1100 have died in 2 months of a particular type of illness that causes it?

We are talking about a country where almost 184-1,223 deaths per 100,000 population die of pneumonia every year.They have not asked for this kind of help, ... ever. To put it another way. 2.5 million-16.9 million die of pneumonia every year in China.

COVID-19 has to have increased their normal expected death rate by several orders of magnitude for China to ask. Not to mention lock down their own cities, halt movement, and to close down their own economy. They would have to expect the death rate to be in much higher than 17 million. .. much higher.

It is not the flu.

The numbers are a lie to keep even those in China calm.

It is all but guaranteed the USA is already doing the same. Go ahead and google tents put up at hospitals in the USA to "triage flu patients".It has already been happening. They are still trying to say deaths from the normal flu.

If you think anyone is going to tell you how bad this really is, they are not. It would cause panic.
 
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TLB

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I want to believe this I really do. But how do you possibly explain China's actions? If it was "just the flu" they wouldn't be locking down ever more cities, keeping factories shut down, and spraying disinfectant in the streets. I mean these are indisputable facts. It's not a conspiracy, its literally happening right now. So how do you reconcile those facts with your assertion that this will just become "part of the seasonal flu".
Because outbreaks make the government and the society they have created look weak. Makes it pretty obvious they have a case of shitholeitus going when SARS, bird flu and COVID-19 keep popping up under the control of your regime doesn't it?

Becoming party of the seasonal flu is because we won't be able to contain it. 80% to 85% of cases are mild. People are going to go out and spread it around. We have descendants of the horrible 1918-19 pandemic on our flu now because these viruses mutate and when you can't contain them, they come back every year.
 
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Good thing. Normal flu already has swine flu components...SARS was much more deadly and contained by China in the early 2000s. No one seems to care about normal seasonal flu in this thread, so....
If this is the same as flu, is your advise we just let it make the rounds with no effort to contain?

I'm not saying it can be controlled. I don't think it can. But if you're somehow saying this is no worse than Flu and we should just ignore it like we do with flu, I think you're out of your goddamn mind. Flu doesn't overwhelm the ICU systems.
 

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If this thing makes someone merrily walking around drop dead of a heart attack,
Slight technicality (possibly), but are these folks passing from sudden heart attack or cardiac arrest (or do we even know)? Important difference as heart attack (blocked blood flow to heart causing tissue death) <> cardiac arrest (failure of the pump). If heart attack I’d be curious to know if the virus was impacting clotting factors and creating thrombosis/embolism issues as this could be interesting for treatment/management (anti clotting meds, blood thinners, etc could prove helpful). My guess is it’s creating a cardiac arrest issue though. Food for thought I suppose, just thinking out loud
 

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If this is the same as flu, is your advise we just let it make the rounds with no effort to contain?

I'm not saying it can be controlled. I don't think it can. But if you're somehow saying this is no worse than Flu and we should just ignore it like we do with flu, I think you're out of your goddamn mind. Flu doesn't overwhelm the ICU systems.
Point to where I said that. Right, you can't. All I said was I think the horse has left the barn. I never said good thing we left the barn door open.

ETA, Part of what I am saying is the real flu already sucks bad. It kills a ton of people and we have vaccines that are less than 50% effective in general, and no real treatments.
 

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Because outbreaks make the government and the society they have created look weak. Makes it pretty obvious they have a case of shitholeitus going when SARS, bird flu and COVID-19 keep popping up under the control of your regime doesn't it?

Becoming party of the seasonal flu is because we won't be able to contain it. 80% to 85% of cases are mild. People are going to go out and spread it around. We have descendants of the horrible 1918-19 pandemic on our flu now because these viruses mutate and when you can't contain them, they come back every year.
We agree, this will likely become endemic of the worldwide human population. Hopefully they can actually create a vaccine, but we still have the common cold so I think that is unlikely. Realistically I think there is hope that a good treatment is found.

What we seem to disagree on, is basically what xtry51 is saying.

If this is the same as flu, is your advise we just let it make the rounds with no effort to contain?

I'm not saying it can be controlled. I don't think it can. But if you're somehow saying this is no worse than Flu and we should just ignore it like we do with flu, I think you're out of your goddamn mind. Flu doesn't overwhelm the ICU systems.
There is absolutely no way any world power takes this level of action just to save face. I mean if you really want to get tin foil hats going, then sure, propose they are overstating the numbers as cover to kill off their elderly and commit some mass genocide or something, but I am not buying if that's what you're selling.

The hard reality is that even if this thing isn't some extinction level event where its both contagious and highly lethal, it is lethal ENOUGH to be a serious problem. Even just going by the published, fraudulent numbers, we can say it is 10x as bad as the flu.

EDIT: Just read your previous comment, maybe you didn't say "good thing the barn door was left open" but your posts do make it sound like you are attributing a similar level of threat to this virus as to the flu.
 
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I'm saying your presumption it will become a "normal Flu" cycle is a bit disingenuous given what information we have now. Reports are saying if you get it twice it's worse. That's not at all how current common seasonal flu operates. I can get seasonal flu twice a year and the risk factor doesn't go up each time. I'm less likely to get flu a second time after the first. Data is pointing to the opposite here.
 
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listened to this on the way in today. It’s starting to sound like this thing spreading around globally is all but a given at this point.
Oh, it’s coming. That’s certain. The question that hasn’t been answered is fatality rate. Will we have to implement draconian efforts like the Chinese did?

And even with a low fatality rate, the hot to the global economy all but guarantees a worldwide recession or depression.
 

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I mean eventually because it won't be contained....I really don't trust any data out of China. Way too many axes to grind from various angles. We need to see what happens in other countries to really know for sure. But, most signs point to it not hitting the young and healthy harder like 1918-19. If that isn't the case then it will be ugly, for sure.
 

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We agree, this will likely become endemic of the worldwide human population. Hopefully they can actually create a vaccine, but we still have the common cold so I think that is unlikely. Realistically I think there is hope that a good treatment is found.

What we seem to disagree on, is basically what xtry51 is saying.



There is absolutely no way any world power takes this level of action just to save face. I mean if you really want to get tin foil hats going, then sure, propose they are overstating the numbers as cover to kill off their elderly and commit some mass genocide or something, but I am not buying if that's what you're selling.

The hard reality is that even if this thing isn't some extinction level event where its both contagious and highly lethal, it is lethal ENOUGH to be a serious problem. Even just going by the published, fraudulent numbers, we can say it is 10x as bad as the flu.

EDIT: Just read your previous comment, maybe you didn't say "good thing the barn door was left open" but your posts do make it sound like you are attributing a similar level of threat to this virus as to the flu.
You realize how many of their own people China has killed on the past and continues to kill for politics and religion, right?
 
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The question in the US is can er handle the number of escalations it causes. People being home with Flu in larger numbers is not an issue. The issue is overwhelming hospitals with serious and critical patients to where they cannot treat anything else.

The other elephant in the room is Americans are much fatter than Asians on average. This makes our circulatory systems far more susceptible to damage than the average Asian/Chinese citizen. If it can infect Caucasians at as high a rate, the US will see more critical cases than China.
 
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GlockJock

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I'm 58 years old...
Am I the only 58 year old here who has noticed that every year, for 58 years (and probably for 68 years, 78 years etc for all the 68 or 78 year olds here, etc etc).. for my entire 58 years the media has (every year!) announced a new "virus" or "deadly plague" or "threat to mankind and the entire planet" (etc etc) that should scare the bleep out of all of us and...and...."And tune in tonight at 6pm and 11pm for more on this potentially devastating (blah blah)....But for now, please stay with us while we take a brief break for a word from our sponsors.."

Just sayin'
 

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You realize how many of their own people China has killed on the past and continues to kill for politics and religion, right?
Are you seriously suggesting that this was China's doing? Or that they are using the virus that emerged as cover? I mean I have no issue believing they are capable of killing their own en mass. In fact sadly I am certain there are plenty of folks over there right now who conveniently "got the virus" and "didn't make it". But this is so highly visible, with such a certainty of investigation, and such collateral economic impact, that its just not reasonable to think this is being inflated UP and not being under-reported.

For me the sulfur levels and the hype and all that is just noise. The signal is the actions that are being taken. These are unprecedented actions that aren't just impacting local commerce. Actions speak louder than words. And the problem here is that the words are concerning, and the actions are even worse.


I'm 58 years old...
Am I the only 58 year old here who has noticed that every year, for 58 years (and probably for 68 years, 78 years etc for all the 68 or 78 year olds here, etc etc).. for my entire 58 years the media has (every year!) announced a new "virus" or "deadly plague" or "threat to mankind and the entire planet" (etc etc) that should scare the bleep out of all of us and...and...."And tune in tonight at 6pm and 11pm for more on this potentially devastating (blah blah)....But for now, please stay with us while we take a brief break for a word from our sponsors.."

Just sayin'
I respect this position, the world has cried wolf over and over and over. My only question is, how many times have you seen a local and/or global response similar to whats happening right now? Does this look and feel the same as the others too you?
 

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You realize how many of their own people China has killed on the past and continues to kill for politics and religion, right?
Meh.

There's still (seemingly) about two or three billion Chinese left, and as long as I can still get my weekly Saturday dinner of chicken & mixed vegetables (with shrimp fried rice and appetizers etc etc) from Tiki Island in Medford?....
Meh.

Just sayin' 😁 (sarc)
 

TLB

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Are you seriously suggesting that this was China's doing? Or that they are using the virus that emerged as cover? I mean I have no issue believing they are capable of killing their own en mass. In fact sadly I am certain there are plenty of folks over there right now who conveniently "got the virus" and "didn't make it". But this is so highly visible, with such a certainty of investigation, and such collateral economic impact, that its just not reasonable to think this is being inflated UP and not being under-reported.

For me the sulfur levels and the hype and all that is just noise. The signal is the actions that are being taken. These are unprecedented actions that aren't just impacting local commerce. Actions speak louder than words. And the problem here is that the words are concerning, and the actions are even worse.




I respect this position, the world has cried wolf over and over and over. My only question is, how many times have you seen a local and/or global response similar to whats happening right now? Does this look and feel the same as the others too you?
Not their doing, no. But if killing is a side effect of their plan to deal with the virus in the best way possible for the regime, they'll do it without a second thought. They must hold onto power first and foremost. The plus side is they actually succeed in some containment where other countries would fail. They did it with SARS.
 
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I'm 58 years old...
Am I the only 58 year old here who has noticed that every year, for 58 years (and probably for 68 years, 78 years etc for all the 68 or 78 year olds here, etc etc).. for my entire 58 years the media has (every year!) announced a new "virus" or "deadly plague" or "threat to mankind and the entire planet" (etc etc) that should scare the bleep out of all of us and...and...."And tune in tonight at 6pm and 11pm for more on this potentially devastating (blah blah)....But for now, please stay with us while we take a brief break for a word from our sponsors.."

Just sayin'
I’m 46 and you’re not wrong.

But.....

The fact of the matter is that there will be another Spanish flu type event. And the world is smaller now. It’s not a matter of IF it will happen but when.

It’s just a wise thing to pay attention.

The smart money has always been to laugh this stuff off. And the smart money is probably still to laugh this off. But the odds are getting better that this is the real thing.
 

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Worst case scenario...

If so many are sick or quarantined that nobody can work, the economy completely fails. Mortgages will go unpaid. Right now, banks cover the costs of a repossessed home (real estate taxes and maintenance utilities) because most mortgages are not in default.

But if virtually ALL mortgages are in default they own most of the houses in the country and have to pay those costs without any meaningful income to cover it. Then the banks fail.

If every banks fails, what happens to all those empty, ownerless houses?
 

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Not their doing, no. But if killing is a side effect of their plan to deal with the virus in the best way possible for the regime, they'll do it without a second thought. They must hold onto power first and foremost. The plus side is they actually succeed in some containment where other countries would fail. They did it with SARS.
My concern is not what evil CCP is doing as a side hustle right now. It's that it was NOT contained and that 90% of what you are seeing coming out of china is a legitimate and proportionate reaction to a threat. The virus being the threat. If that's the case, then the narrative right now is severely understating the threat.

Worst case scenario...

If so many are sick or quarantined that nobody can work, the economy completely fails. Mortgages will go unpaid. Right now, banks cover the costs of a repossessed home (real estate taxes and maintenance utilities) because most mortgages are not in default.

But if virtually ALL mortgages are in default they own most of the houses in the country and have to pay those costs without any meaningful income to cover it. Then the banks fail.

If every banks fails, what happens to all those empty, ownerless houses?
Bingo. It's not that I'm afraid of being the 1 in 50 or 1 in 500 that die. I'm concerned about what happens when its bad enough that you can't convince everyone to roll the dice and the economy shuts down.
 

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That's sort of the thrust of the video above. It's still spreading even given China's seemingly draconian steps to contain it. Unless you're willing to forcibly quarantine everyone who tests positive + everyone they came into contact during the preceding [14] days + everyone they came into contact with following that contact it's almost pointless. You can get the R0 down but you won't cut off the spread, therefore why torch the global economy and inflict untold suffering on everyone that way rather than just let it run its course.
 
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Oh, it’s coming. That’s certain. The question that hasn’t been answered is fatality rate. Will we have to implement draconian efforts like the Chinese did?

And even with a low fatality rate, the hot to the global economy all but guarantees a worldwide recession or depression.
Americans would go full retard even if mass quarantines were actually the actual right thing to do. I'm still in the 'hope this bug is racist' crowd, then the D's will condemn it and it'll stop.

Even after this discussion, how many people that live in Boston will stay home if a breakout happens there? Or will you go out and spread it because 'Murica'?
 

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Americans would go full retard even if mass quarantines were actually the actual right thing to do. I'm still in the 'hope this bug is racist' crowd, then the D's will condemn it and it'll stop.

Even after this discussion, how many people that live in Boston will stay home if a breakout happens there? Or will you go out and spread it because 'Murica'?
Yeah, mass quarantines here will be the shittiest shitshow that was ever shat out. How many people in the cities of America have enough food in their houses to survive a week? Who's feeding them? Who's making sure they stay in - cops? The national guard? We'll probably figure out that it's here too late for it to matter anyway though.
 

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The 2020 Olympics are in Tokyo this year, starting in July. That should be interesting.
 
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Worst case scenario...

If so many are sick or quarantined that nobody can work, the economy completely fails. Mortgages will go unpaid. Right now, banks cover the costs of a repossessed home (real estate taxes and maintenance utilities) because most mortgages are not in default.

But if virtually ALL mortgages are in default they own most of the houses in the country and have to pay those costs without any meaningful income to cover it. Then the banks fail.

If every banks fails, what happens to all those empty, ownerless houses?
Trick question. They aren't ownerless because the people never left in that scenario. What you are talking about is what happens everytime a socialist country collapses because the state is the bank.

People move on. Banks in the modern world are shell corporations for currency that doesn't exist because we abandoned gold/silver.
 

NHCraigT

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Meh.

There's still (seemingly) about two or three billion Chinese left, and as long as I can still get my weekly Saturday dinner of chicken & mixed vegetables (with shrimp fried rice and appetizers etc etc) from Tiki Island in Medford?....
Meh.

Just sayin' 😁 (sarc)

No Thanks .......

its in medford [slap]

nope
 
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