Ammo Shortage

[Coyote33]

Nobody wants to sink millions of $$ into fixed capital - without a known rate of return to amortize the cost.

Also if I was a financial analyst, the long term outlook for ammo profitability is waaaaay better than guns.

Right before the election and the covid crisis, ammo was about as available as it could be, maybe not as cheap, but close.

Anyhow, with millions more gun owners, and old and new alike buying like there is no tomorrow, well, the future looks bright for ammo sales. Sales are said to be on back order for what, 2 years ahead as of right now, and guns are still selling, and those new gun owners haven't really even started to barely get into the sport. Plus, you have to figure what ISN'T BACKORDERED is probably 20-30 times what is, so I'd say their investment would be good for the next 10 years at least.

So, where does one buy a machine to make .22 casings? Maybe they should have one company just cranking them out, and they can sell to the others to prime them, add powder and bullets.

Maybe I'll apply to the government for a small business loan to get a new company started.

(Where is that NES thread from the guy who wanted to start his own ammunition company?)

 

[drgrant]

Right before the election and the covid crisis, ammo was about as available as it could be, maybe not as cheap, but close.

Anyhow, with millions more gun owners, and old and new alike buying like there is no tomorrow, well, the future looks bright for ammo sales. Sales are said to be on back order for what, 2 years ahead as of right now, and guns are still selling, and those new gun owners haven't really even started to barely get into the sport. Plus, you have to figure what ISN'T BACKORDERED is probably 20-30 times what is, so I'd say their investment would be good for the next 10 years at least.

So, where does one buy a machine to make .22 casings? Maybe they should have one company just cranking them out, and they can sell to the others to prime them, add powder and bullets.

Maybe I'll apply to the government for a small business loan to get a new company started.

(Where is that NES thread from the guy who wanted to start his own ammunition company?)

Whatever your business plan is, unless you're just making components (bullets, brass) thats one thing, but if you're loading live ammo and you're not making priming compound or you dont have a priming house, dont even bother. There are a lot of commercial reloaders probably sitting on their ass right now because they can't get primers.

 

[Mesatchornug]

Whatever your business plan is, unless you're just making components (bullets, brass) thats one thing, but if you're loading live ammo and you're not making priming compound or you dont have a priming house, dont even bother. There are a lot of commercial reloaders probably sitting on their ass right now because they can't get primers.

right. and really, there's only one component that's really worth throwing that money into right now - primers. so all you have to do is develop a process and formula for making a material so volatile it combusts if you hit it hard enough, and precisely meter it into little brass cups. In the grand scheme, it's not that hard, but the machines are probably the easiest part.

 

[mousegunfan]

It seems 9mm & 22lr is more available. If it keeps up maybe the price will start to drop.

 

[jkelly1229]

I think you also have to factor in that the gun industry as a whole - has I believe been burned quite a bit by the massive surges in demand in the past. Take your small company building ARs and ramp it up to meet demand, add employees, add equipment, add inventory - and suddenly the bottom drops out of the market and you're left holding the bag.

Ammunition is even worse because the machines to manufacture it are pretty specific to that industry. Nobody wants to sink millions of $$ into fixed capital - without a known rate of return to amortize the cost.

Yeah but otoh now you're flush is the time to improve things not when your margins suxk

 

[Davidk]

A message to me today from the owner of Black Hills ammo: "We are further behind than we ever were...orders coming in so fast there is no way to keep up."

 

[cathouse01]

Again, the weird thing about ammo is the disconnect between demand and consumption, and the fact that ammo is a a durable good (meaning that it has a very long shelf life). There is currently a massive demand for ammo but relatively low consumption because of the impact of Covid on closing ranges and folks being reluctant to consume ammo that they think they might not be able to replace. What the ammo manufactures have to forecast is what will the ammo consumption be in the future.. Recent surveys that I’ve seen (and they seem reasonable to me) is that only about 13% of gun owners regularly go to the range (and therefore regularly consume ammo). If this percentage stays the same, then of the 10 million new guns owners, there would be about 1.3 million who would actually be regular consumers of ammo. A big number, but not insurmountable for the existing capacity, particularly if there is a huge overhang of unused ammo sitting on peoples shelves. I actually think that the percentage of new gun owners who will become regular range goers will be lower than the traditional 13%, simply because of the nature of the new owners (they are very specifically getting a firearm for personal protection and no other reason).

The big unknown is what, if any, gun control legislation will be coming out of the Democratically controlled congress. If nothing particular gets passed and gun control fades from the forefront, I could see the shortage rapidly turning into a mini glut as regular shooters stop buying and just start shooting down their existing stockpiles and most of those 10 million new gun owners put their guns in the dresser drawer and forget about them.

All I can say is I would not want to be in the ammo manufacturing business right now.

 

[Coyote33]

A message to me today from the owner of Black Hills ammo: "We are further behind than we ever were...orders coming in so fast there is no way to keep up."

Sounds like a new factory would be a good investment for the next 10-20 years.

the impact of Covid on closing ranges

Have not heard of this impact.

The big unknown is what, if any, gun control legislation will be coming out of the Democratically controlled congress

This is the big question mark.

 

[Quite_Exasperated]

right. and really, there's only one component that's really worth throwing that money into right now - primers. so all you have to do is develop a process and formula for making a material so volatile it combusts if you hit it hard enough, and precisely meter it into little brass cups. In the grand scheme, it's not that hard, but the machines are probably the easiest part.

so all we need is a few good chemistry students and we’re golden..

 

[Davidk]

It’s really simple. People are hoarding because others are hoarding. It’s a self fulfilling prophecy

I bought 14 cases because knew ammo would be impossible to find for the next 3 years. With my new ammo added to my existing, I have enough that I don’t worry about practicing or having enough for matches

 

[Mesatchornug]

so all we need is a few good chemistry students and we’re golden..

I love your spunk. you line up some funding, and I'll be right there with my rolodex and a CAD station. I'm sure we can have something running by Tuesday

 

[jwilson]

Talking to bass pro in Hooksett. They have a big ammo load tomorrow. So Friday morning will be a shit show. Bass pro prices have been fair un like my ammo prices ! Lol I' m down to 75c a round for xm85

 

[Quite_Exasperated]

So I wonder what the end game here is...stock up enough to last a lifetime? Not at these prices. What is everyone afraid of? The banishment of ammo? Even if the new Theftident and his caretakers impose some new tax, it can’t possibly result in a higher cpr than we’ve driven it with our retardedness. The newbs are driving this panic. Take heart, in the end, even if there are serious restrictions by some other means (background checks, bans, etc.) a black market will pop up to serve our needs a la drugs and to some extent, guns. After all, the gangbangers always end up with enough of both via Mexico and entry via shipping ports.

 

[bostonhockey]

Maybe Im being overly optimistic but I have seen prices seem to come down a little bit and availability pick up...have been able to grab 9mm, 5.56 and .22 pretty easily locally. Still full retard prices compared to how it was but at least its been consistently available lately

 

[Grendizer138]

So I wonder what the end game here is...stock up enough to last a lifetime? Not at these prices. What is everyone afraid of? The banishment of ammo? Even if the new Theftident and his caretakers impose some new tax, it can’t possibly result in a higher cpr than we’ve driven it with our retardedness. The newbs are driving this panic. Take heart, in the end, even if there are serious restrictions by some other means (background checks, bans, etc.) a black market will pop up to serve our needs a la drugs and to some extent, guns. After all, the gangbangers always end up with enough of both via Mexico and entry via shipping ports.

You obviously don’t shoot 7n6.

 

[Dr_Scholl]

So I wonder what the end game here is...stock up enough to last a lifetime? Not at these prices. What is everyone afraid of? The banishment of ammo? Even if the new Theftident and his caretakers impose some new tax, it can’t possibly result in a higher cpr than we’ve driven it with our retardedness. The newbs are driving this panic. Take heart, in the end, even if there are serious restrictions by some other means (background checks, bans, etc.) a black market will pop up to serve our needs a la drugs and to some extent, guns. After all, the gangbangers always end up with enough of both via Mexico and entry via shipping ports.

Don't you know?

The big gun ban/ammo tax/confiscation is always just around the corner

 

[headednorth]

Curious as to why the bottleneck always seems to be primers. Surely all components are in short supply from time to time, but primers are always hardest hit. Theres 1 projectile and 1 case for every round same as primers, but these never seem to dry up as fast or as long as primers.

 

[Quite_Exasperated]

Don't you know?

The big gun ban/ammo tax/confiscation is always just around the corner

As long as Manchin holds and refuses to break the filibuster, the D needs 60 votes to pass anything. Manchin has been unequivocal about not breaking the filibuster.

 

[Road_Clam]

Curious as to why the bottleneck always seems to be primers. Surely all components are in short supply from time to time, but primers are always hardest hit. Theres 1 projectile and 1 case for every round same as primers, but these never seem to dry up as fast or as long as primers.

Good observations. My take is the fact that with brass it's reusable therefore creating a over supply vs demand. With bullets there is a ton of "alternate" choices to load, also creating less of a panic because of substitution possibilities. Same goes with powder if you can't find Unique there's most likely something you can find as a substiutute. Might not be the ideal choice for your goal but in times of panic , buyers don't care they have to have something to shoot. Now with primers, there is really NO substitutions or alternates. There's small pistol or small pistol magnum. And really CCI dominates the market for general range plinking ammo. So bottom line delayed supplies , creating increased panic .

 

[drgrant]

Curious as to why the bottleneck always seems to be primers. Surely all components are in short supply from time to time, but primers are always hardest hit. Theres 1 projectile and 1 case for every round same as primers, but these never seem to dry up as fast or as long as primers.

Most small ammo manufacturers don't make primers. Put a little stress on the market and poof, primer production cant meet demand. Also the bigs are going to allocate primers to themselves before anyone else.

 

[AHM]

Manchin has been unequivocal about not breaking the filibuster.

Democrat definition of "unequivocal": "equivocal".

Microsoft News: Democrats near pressure point on nixing filibuster
Jordain Carney . 20 mins ago

... to nix or reform the filibuster, Democrats would need every senator in their 50-member caucus and Vice President Harris. It's not clear if growing support from colleagues or even the prospect of entrenched opposition will sway the caucus's biggest opponents to getting rid of the rule.​

​

Manchin, during a series of interviews on Sunday, reiterated his opposition to getting rid of the filibuster altogether.​

​

But in remarks that quickly caught the attention of reform advocates, Manchin signaled an openness to making it more "painful" to use the procedural roadblock, including potentially looking at talking filibusters that require opponents to be physically on the floor.​

​

"If you want to make it a little bit more painful, make them stand there and talk. I'm willing to look at any way we can," Manchin told "Meet the Press."​

​

"But I am not willing to take away the involvement of the minority," he added. "I've been in the minority."​

 

[Grendizer138]

As long as Manchin holds and refuses to break the filibuster, the D needs 60 votes to pass anything. Manchin has been unequivocal about not breaking the filibuster.

How many votes did Bush get for the ‘89 import ban? How many votes did the ATF get for 922r and various other import bans? How many votes did Obama get for the 2014 Russian import ban?

How many votes does Biden need for an ammo import ban? How about an online sales ban?

 

[EC1]

I predict that if the dems get rid of the filibuster rule, they will reinstitute it in a lame duck session it if they lose their majority in a nov election.
Think about what the Ma**h*** legislature did with regard to rules about the governor's ability to name replacement legislators when one retires or dies with time in office remaining. Frack-them. I only hope the reps would have the balls to play the same game.

 

[drgrant]

How many votes did Bush get for the ‘89 import ban? How many votes did the ATF get for 922r and various other import bans? How many votes did Obama get for the 2014 Russian import ban?

How many votes does Biden need for an ammo import ban? How about an online sales ban?

Lol the gun mafia supported all of those you just mentioned. Protectionism is rampant in this country.

 

[Grendizer138]

Lol the gun mafia supported all of those you just mentioned. Protectionism is rampant in this country.

Oh, definitely. Doesn’t change the fact that legislation isn’t needed to to adversely affect gun owners.

 

[Rococo]

New gun owners have no idea how low ammo prices were Pre COVID! They have zero frame of reference unless they have a gun friend. f*** most NES guys arent prepared either they just talk like they are. Come on more than half of gun owners were resting on the Trump laurels and didnt think he had a chance in hell of losing to sleepy Joe.

It isnt just the new gun owners. Its the unprepared vets that got caught with their pants down. Pandemic+Biden=oops

For someone who bought a P365 for 750$ paying $1 a round doesnt sound bad. Its cheap ass life insurance compared to being killed by a bad guy.

I just sold a $37 9mm Hornady LnL shell plate on eBay for 147$. Why? Because I just got a Dillon. This sale happened 48 hours ago. Reloading equipment is going crazy.

If you think ammo supply or prices is going to be normal in July youre high on smokeless powder. Put the bullpup down I get it you like the smell.

New gun owners are scared shitless of the new death machines they have strapped to their hip. Scared the f***ing thing will randomly shoot them in the junk.

Theyre all watching Hickok45 and Garandthumb on Youtube and all these gun guys constantly say go shoot. Having a gun isn’t worth shit if you cant shoot. Garandthumb literally ends every video with the training schtick.

New shooters aren’t joining your fancy clubs with members only bullshit. Just because you dont see Mikey one gun and Jonny 22 at Hopkinton or Harvard doesnt mean he isnt shooting 50-100$ worth of ammo every weekend. Do you realize how much people were spending at clubs every weekend Precovid?

The new shooters are shooting at public local ranges. I went to gun parlor Saturday around 4pm because I reload and its 2 minutes from my house.

Every lane was full. People were shooting 22, 45 ACP, 9mm, and a few AR guys with 5.56 myself included. A guy in the lane next to me shot off 300 rounds between 9mm and 5.56 in less than 1 hour and his groups were terrible

They were all new shooters talking about their uppers from Optics Planet coming in and how much 7.62 was at Cabelas today.

Same with Mass Firearms last week on a Wednesday night. Every classroom was full. Every lane had someone shooting.

EVEN LIBERALS ARE BUYING AMMO!

Stop complaining. Grow a f***ing pair. Shoot your gun and reload your ammo or pay the ammo man !

end rant.

 

[drgrant]

Theyre all watching Hickok45 and Garandthumb on Youtube and all these gun guys constantly say go shoot. Having a gun isn’t worth shit if you cant shoot. Garandthumb literally ends every video with the training schtick.

As someone who is actively engaged in what I call "Gun Babysitting" with 5 different semi-newbs, no, they're not. Well, one of them actually is, when I send him something useful to
watch. He actually has his head in the game in the right place..... Actually he doesn't even count because he's not really a full on newb. The rest of them are like the people in this
video...

(nsfw)

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1BDM1oBRJ8

 

[Coyote33]

Has anyone seen any Remington ammo yet since they have restarted their factories?

 

[SDG]

they had some 9mm on TSUA for a hot second last week

 

[556USER]

Has anyone seen any Remington ammo yet since they have restarted their factories?

Yup, just recently acquired a 1400 round bucket of Golden Bullets (22LR) Practice / plinking ammo.