‘The Big One Is Coming’ and the U.S. Military Isn’t Ready

[SFC13557]

As I've said before Taiwan needs to turn itself into Switzerland, It's citizens need to decide if they're willing to die for their freedom like Ukrainians. Conscript all able bodied citizens into a NG and train them on defending their cities, towns, etc. The PLA has to cross the Taiwan Strait to move Soldiers and Armored vehicles and supplies for the most part which make them targets of opportunity. Taiwan is very mountainous and would be an invaders nightmare if the population was well equipped and motivated. In 1945 the US Military was deciding between the Philippines and Formosa for invasion for a staging ground for the invasion of Japan and Formosa (Taiwan) was nixed because of possible fierce Japanese resistance and terrain. Also Mac Arthur wanted the Philippines to honor his promise to return.

 

[Spanz]

Reminds me of the Cabaret in Peabody...

View attachment 683807

Or D. B.'s Golden....oh never mind

 

[Picton]

As I've said before Taiwan needs to turn itself into Switzerland, It's citizens need to decide if they're willing to die for their freedom like Ukrainians. Conscript all able bodied citizens into a NG and train them on defending their cities, towns, etc. The PLA has to cross the Taiwan Strait to move Soldiers and Armored vehicles and supplies for the most part which make them targets of opportunity. Taiwan is very mountainous and would be an invaders nightmare if the population was well equipped and motivated. In 1945 the US Military was deciding between the Philippines and Formosa for invasion for a staging ground for the invasion of Japan and Formosa (Taiwan) was nixed because of possible fierce Japanese resistance and terrain. Also Mac Arthur wanted the Philippines to honor his promise to return.

Taiwan has had universal conscription since 1951 (including women) and has said that even if they ever go to an all-volunteer force, they’ll still require military training at 18. All men on Taiwan are in the military as of age 18 and aren’t discharged until they turn 36.

So. It’s already been done.

 

[SFC13557]

Taiwan has had universal conscription since 1951 (including women) and has said that even if they ever go to an all-volunteer force, they’ll still require military training at 18. All men on Taiwan are in the military as of age 18 and aren’t discharged until they turn 36.

So. It’s already been done.

Nope, they're called "Strawberries", Momma's boys who pack on the lbs. to avoid conscription. Very easy to "avoid" military Duty in Taiwan from what I've read.


"
The last two societal and socio-economic reasons have created this generation of “strawberry soldiers” – a trope to describe Taiwanese youth raised by overprotective parents who easily bruise.

Taiwan’s military ranks have fallen over the last decade after military conscription was phased out following public pressure, according to a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report.

Compulsory military service now consists of four months of basic training, down from two years maintained for decades. It was first reduced to two years in 2008 and then halved in 2017.


Taiwan’s all-volunteer serving soldiers also fell to 165,000 last year from 275,000 three years earlier. Around 445,000 troops – 185,000 regulars and 260,000 reservists – can be mustered. China, on the contrary, has 100 times the ground personnel and a military budget that is 25 times larger.

“Even after the military increases the refresher training for the reservists, the 14 days are still not enough. The effect would be limited as these people have never received training as tough as the active forces.

Nor have they joined them in group training together, making it highly difficult for them to effectively work with the active forces in the event of war,” said retired air force Lieutenant General Chang Yen-ting, also a guest professor at National Tsing Hua University.

Another WSJ report talks about young men deliberately gaining weight by stuffing themselves with McDonald’s hamburgers to avoid compulsory military conscription.

At the same time, other youth who did sign up did not learn to do anything worthwhile in those four months. “Xiao Cheng-Zhi, a 26-year-old from central Taiwan, said his four months of basic training that ended last year mainly involved sweeping leaves, moving spare tires, and pulling weeds. Aside from some marksmanship training, he said, his classes were meaningless,” the report said.

Many youths view the military as a relic of Taiwan’s authoritarian past, which should have ceased with its founding leader Chiang Kai-shek in 1975, who kept the country under a military dictatorship until then.

Some were legitimately scared and were taking lessons from Ukraine on building defenses and stalling an advancing army."

Taiwan's 'Strawberry Soldiers' Who Eat Hamburgers To Gain Weight & Avoid Military Service Ready For China War?

After US Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, China turned up its military activities around Taiwan like never before. The defining ones are live exercises in six regions surrounding Taiwan, which would also cross the imaginary ‘median line’; firing missiles over Taiwan and; pressing its stealth...

eurasiantimes.com

 

[PATRON]

What's everyone worries about,we are all going to get nuked and that will be the end of it.

 

[Picton]

Nope, they're called "Strawberries", Momma's boys who pack on the lbs. to avoid conscription. Very easy to "avoid" military Duty in Taiwan from what I've read.


"
The last two societal and socio-economic reasons have created this generation of “strawberry soldiers” – a trope to describe Taiwanese youth raised by overprotective parents who easily bruise.

Taiwan’s military ranks have fallen over the last decade after military conscription was phased out following public pressure, according to a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report.

Compulsory military service now consists of four months of basic training, down from two years maintained for decades. It was first reduced to two years in 2008 and then halved in 2017.


Taiwan’s all-volunteer serving soldiers also fell to 165,000 last year from 275,000 three years earlier. Around 445,000 troops – 185,000 regulars and 260,000 reservists – can be mustered. China, on the contrary, has 100 times the ground personnel and a military budget that is 25 times larger.

“Even after the military increases the refresher training for the reservists, the 14 days are still not enough. The effect would be limited as these people have never received training as tough as the active forces.

Nor have they joined them in group training together, making it highly difficult for them to effectively work with the active forces in the event of war,” said retired air force Lieutenant General Chang Yen-ting, also a guest professor at National Tsing Hua University.

Another WSJ report talks about young men deliberately gaining weight by stuffing themselves with McDonald’s hamburgers to avoid compulsory military conscription.

At the same time, other youth who did sign up did not learn to do anything worthwhile in those four months. “Xiao Cheng-Zhi, a 26-year-old from central Taiwan, said his four months of basic training that ended last year mainly involved sweeping leaves, moving spare tires, and pulling weeds. Aside from some marksmanship training, he said, his classes were meaningless,” the report said.

Many youths view the military as a relic of Taiwan’s authoritarian past, which should have ceased with its founding leader Chiang Kai-shek in 1975, who kept the country under a military dictatorship until then.

Some were legitimately scared and were taking lessons from Ukraine on building defenses and stalling an advancing army."

Taiwan's 'Strawberry Soldiers' Who Eat Hamburgers To Gain Weight & Avoid Military Service Ready For China War?

After US Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, China turned up its military activities around Taiwan like never before. The defining ones are live exercises in six regions surrounding Taiwan, which would also cross the imaginary ‘median line’; firing missiles over Taiwan and; pressing its stealth...

eurasiantimes.com

Okay. Good info. Well, what are they supposed to do? The government has a long history of conscription, and it's still the law, so plainly they agree with you.

If the people themselves aren't interested in putting in the sweat to defend the country, then that's even a bigger argument in favor of the US staying far, far away from any suggestion of defending that place. So, in the context of this thread, it turns out the US might not be the only ones completely unready for "the big one," if Taiwan is what that is.

The last thing we want to be is the proxy defender of client states who aren't interested in fighting for their own freedom. That's one of the many lessons of Vietnam, I would think. You back the horses who'll run, not the ones who prefer to stay in the stable.

 

[SFC13557]

Okay. Good info. Well, what are they supposed to do? The government has a long history of conscription, and it's still the law, so plainly they agree with you.

If the people themselves aren't interested in putting in the sweat to defend the country, then that's even a bigger argument in favor of the US staying far, far away from any suggestion of defending that place. So, in the context of this thread, it turns out the US might not be the only ones completely unready for "the big one," if Taiwan is what that is.

The last thing we want to be is the proxy defender of client states who aren't interested in fighting for their own freedom. That's one of the many lessons of Vietnam, I would think. You back the horses who'll run, not the ones who prefer to stay in the stable.

As I said the Taiwanese people and Govt. need to have a Come to Jesus meeting and decide to whether fight or capitulate. I would not risk our Navy and Military on a Country that won't sacrifice it's own citizens for their freedom. Their Military needs to do a comprehensive study of the War in the Ukraine and come up with a plan for both weapons expenditures and Military training for it's citizens. Taiwan could be a quagmire for the PLA if the Taiwanese are motivated.
The problem in Vietnam was a corrupt Government that didn't represent the people.

 

[SFC13557]

Dementia Joe had a meeting with Emperor Xi today in Bali, supposedly he brought up the Taiwan issue and the origins of Covid.
I'm sure Joey read Xi the riot act and the world is a safer place.

 

[SFC13557]

Biden’s Missing Taiwan Strategy​

As he meets with Xi Jinping, the President lacks a credible trade agenda for the Pacific.​

"When President Biden sits down Monday with Xi Jinping ahead of the G-20 summit, he’ll face a confident and increasingly aggressive Chinese President. Who knows what Mr. Xi will conclude about the aging American president, but there’s no doubt he will probe U.S. resolve on Taiwan.

Mr. Xi comes to the meeting having been given a historic third term by the Chinese Communist Party. Meanwhile, the U.S. recently concluded what it called “productive” meetings with Taipei over trade-related issues. Mr. Xi opposes closer U.S. ties with the island democracy.

The decision to pursue these trade negotiations is welcome. But the context is that this was a sop to Taiwan for the Biden Administration’s decision to exclude it from the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework that the President announced in May. A bipartisan group of 52 senators and 200 House Members wrote separate letters urging Taiwan’s inclusion.
IPEF is a watered down version of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that Barack Obama signed in 2016 but President Trump withdrew from in one of his worst strategic decisions. IPEF is intended to shore up allies in the region by creating a rules-based community based on shared objectives.

China isn’t included because it isn’t a good-faith player, and the hope is that IPEF helps shield our friends from China’s bullying. Australia suffered when China, angered by its call for an honest investigation into the origin of Covid, retaliated by restricting Australian exports such as wine, coal and lobster.

As Vice President, Mr. Biden defended TPP, which was the showcase of the Obama Administration’s “pivot to Asia.” But once he ran for the Democratic presidential nomination, Mr. Biden flipped for domestic political reasons. He calculated that the Bernie Sanders wing of his party was opposed to trade deals as much as Donald Trump was.

So it’s telling that IPEF conspicuously doesn’t offer the one thing all these Asian nations want: greater access to the U.S. market. Even the talks with Taiwan don’t promise that. What incentive do small countries have to risk angering China if they don’t at least get better access to the American market in return?

In March, U.S. trade representative Katherine Tai admitted to the Senate Finance Committee that tariff liberalization is not the Administration’s goal. Traditional free trade agreements, she said, “have led us to a place where we are facing a considerable backlash that we are listening to from our own people about concerns regarding the offshoring and outsourcing of American jobs and opportunities through these types of arrangements.”

That explains why even the bilateral negotiations with Taiwan won’t produce a full-fledged trade agreement—which would have to go through Congress. But this plays into China’s hands.

Much is at stake at Monday’s meeting with Mr. Xi. Mr. Biden can’t afford to show weakness on the U.S. commitment to Taiwan’s defense, which needs to be backed up immediately with U.S. and allied military assets. But Mr. Biden is harming his own policy, and U.S. interests, by lacking a credible economic strategy with Taiwan and the rest of the Asia-Pacific."

 

[garandman]

Listen to Xi Jinping about Taiwan - War on the Rocks

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not imminent. If we listen to the words of China’s leader, Xi Jinping, that is. Xi’s much-anticipated Party Congress work

warontherocks.com

 

[Rockrivr1]

Listen to Xi Jinping about Taiwan - War on the Rocks

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not imminent. If we listen to the words of China’s leader, Xi Jinping, that is. Xi’s much-anticipated Party Congress work

warontherocks.com

Say there isn't going to be an invasion right before the invasion!

 

[rogersmithiii]

A U.S. flag officer talks candidly about the fading U.S. deterrent.​

No Shit!

From the WSJ.

"Russia’s invasion of Ukraine revealed the fading power of America’s military deterrent, a fact that too few of our leaders seem willing to admit in public. So it is encouraging to hear a senior flag officer acknowledge the danger in a way that we hope is the start of a campaign to educate the American public.

“This Ukraine crisis that we’re in right now, this is just the warmup,” Navy Admiral Charles Richard, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, said this week at a conference. “The big one is coming. And it isn’t going to be very long before we’re going to get tested in ways that we haven’t been tested” for “a long time.”

How bad is it? Well, the admiral said, “As I assess our level of deterrence against China, the ship is slowly sinking. It is sinking slowly, but it is sinking, as fundamentally they are putting capability in the field faster than we are.” Sinking slowly is hardly a consolation. As “those curves keep going,” it won’t matter “how good our commanders are, or how good our horses are—we’re not going to have enough of them. And that is a very near-term problem.”

Note that modifier “near-term.” This is a more urgent vulnerability than most of the political class cares to recognize.

Adm. Richard noted that America retains an advantage in submarines—“maybe the only true asymmetric advantage we still have”—but even that may erode unless America picks up the pace “getting our maintenance problems fixed, getting new construction going.” Building three Virginia-class fast-attack submarines a year would be a good place to start.

The news last year that China tested a hypersonic missile that flew around the world and landed at home should have raised more alarms than it did. It means China can put any U.S. city or facility at risk and perhaps without being detected. The fact that the test took the U.S. by surprise and that it surpassed America’s hypersonic capabilities makes it worse. How we lost the hypersonic race to China and Russia deserves hearings in Congress.

“We used to know how to move fast, and we have lost the art of that,” the admiral added. The military talks “about how we are going to mitigate our assumed eventual failure” to field new ballistic submarines, bombers or long-range weapons, instead of flipping the question to ask: “What’s it going to take? Is it money? Is it people? Do you need authorities?” That’s “how we got to the Moon by 1969.”

Educating the public about U.S. military weaknesses runs the risk of encouraging adversaries to exploit them. But the greater risk today is slouching ahead in blind complacency until China invades Taiwan or takes some other action that damages U.S. interests or allies because Bejiing thinks the U.S. can do nothing about it."

Elections have consequences. Our leaders on both the right and the left have been incredibly negligent and incompetent since WW2. And we are ultimately to blame because we elected the idiots.

 

[rogersmithiii]

Listen to Xi Jinping about Taiwan - War on the Rocks

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not imminent. If we listen to the words of China’s leader, Xi Jinping, that is. Xi’s much-anticipated Party Congress work

warontherocks.com

This too.

A Dangerous Game Over Taiwan

For decades, China has coveted its island neighbor. Is Xi Jinping ready to seize it?

www.newyorker.com

 

[SFC13557]

Great, informative article by the New Yorker. It's all up to Emperor Xi and the Taiwanese People.
War would be a Global Nightmare and hopefully Xi knows this.

 

[SS1]

there are only 2 countries that can attack continental US - Canada and Mexico. Not my job to assess the probability for either of them to amass enough ground troops for an invasion, whatever a reason for such invasion can be.

and all the rest of military asshats that still talk about wars across the globe - they should shut up and start maintaining security of the border of their own country.

Maybe half are already here
Does not take much to break down the infrastructure

there are only 2 countries that can attack continental US - Canada and Mexico. Not my job to assess the probability for either of them to amass enough ground troops for an invasion, whatever a reason for such invasion can be.

and all the rest of military asshats that still talk about wars across the globe - they should shut up and start maintaining security of the border of their own country.

 

[MaverickNH]

Opinion | Americans Are Losing Trust in the Military

The rise of woke politics has undermined public confidence in the brass.

www.wsj.com

“The Reagan Institute releases an annual survey of public attitudes on national defense, and this year only 48% reported having “a great deal of confidence” in the U.S. military in results first detailed here. That’s down from 70% in 2018, and within the margin error of last year’s 45%.

…Many Americans think the military is no longer an institution that runs on excellence, merit and individual submission to a larger cause.”

Might be Americans are in a “Trust No One” phase after COVID and 2020 elections.

 

[Rockrivr1]

Opinion | Americans Are Losing Trust in the Military

The rise of woke politics has undermined public confidence in the brass.

www.wsj.com

“The Reagan Institute releases an annual survey of public attitudes on national defense, and this year only 48% reported having “a great deal of confidence” in the U.S. military in results first detailed here. That’s down from 70% in 2018, and within the margin error of last year’s 45%.

…Many Americans think the military is no longer an institution that runs on excellence, merit and individual submission to a larger cause.”

Might be Americans are in a “Trust No One” phase after COVID and 2020 elections.

View attachment 692883

Good to see Journalism and Elected Leaders taking a beating, as they should. Not so good to see the Military taking a hit though.

 

[SFC13557]

Good to see Journalism and Elected Leaders taking a beating, as they should. Not so good to see the Military taking a hit though.

General Milley called me a white Supremacist, the Military has gone woke. There needs to be a total house cleaning of the TOP Generals/Admirals and we need hardcore killers to lead our Troops, not HR Generals.

Taiwan recently had an election and its citizens ignored the threat from China and elected Pols who will focus on the economy and quality of life, they're f***ed.

 

[jkelly1229]

When military people talk about "deterrence" in the strategic sense, like Admiral Richard is, they're talking about our ability to discourage other countries from trying to attack us militarily. That's the sense in which he means it.

Neither he nor the OP has given me any reason yet why China is a threat to militarily attack the United States.

Distract from covid bs?

Idk just spitballing because that could backfire spectacularly

 

[SFC13557]

U.S. Unveils B-21 Raider, the Stealth Bomber Designed to Deter China​

The Air Force wants 100 of the new jets, priced at $750 million apiece​

From today's WSJ.

"PALMDALE, Calif.—The Pentagon is poised to show off its first new bomber in more than 30 years, lifting the veil on the secret long-range jet intended as a central element in Washington’s effort to keep China in check.

Defense giant Northrop Grumman Corp. on Friday will provide a glimpse of one of the new B-21 Raider jets at a government facility north of Los Angeles, where its most sensitive military projects are developed and built, ahead of an expected first flight next year.

At a cost of about $750 million, the B-21 boasts a futuristic flying-wing design and is intended to fly thousands of miles to strike targets deep behind enemy lines, evading detection by the most sophisticated air defenses. The plane is the first part of the U.S. nuclear deterrent’s $1 trillion overhaul, which will also include new nuclear submarines and land-based missiles, countering China’s own expanding nuclear forces. The B-21 will carry conventional and nuclear arms, and could eventually fly without a pilot, Northrop Grumman says.

“The B-21 provides utility to accomplish our nation’s security objective in every scenario imaginable,” said retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula. “No other weapons system can do that.”

The Defense Department has said that strategic competition with China is the U.S.’s primary national-security imperative, including deterring conflicts in the Taiwan Straits, the South China Sea and other areas of the Indo-Pacific region. That requires a bomber that can evade enemy radar through a stealth design, achieve a high top speed and carry a payload of advanced weaponry that it can drop it on many targets in a single run, defense analysts say.

“The B-21 is America’s China-deterrence bomber,” said Mark Gunzinger, a retired bomber pilot who flew the B-52, the Vietnam-era workhorse of the Air Force’s bomber fleet.

The Air Force hasn’t disclosed when it will deploy the B-21, though military analysts expect the first to enter operations in 2026 or 2027. It will join a bomber fleet that is the smallest—and oldest—in Air Force history.

In the years following World War II, the U.S. built a huge number of bombers designed to strike deep behind the lines in a conflict with the Soviet Union. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the Air Force began shrinking its bomber fleet, while expanding its fleet of surveillance and recon planes, helicopters and attack planes suited for the fights in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The B-52 bombers are 60 years old on average, and the Air Force plans to fly them into the 2050s. The Air Force’s roughly 45 B-1 bombers are 34 years old on average, while its 20 B-2 stealth bombers are 26 years old.

“It’s later than it should be, given this decline in force capability and capacity,” Gen. Deptula said about the B-21. “But finally, it’s going to deliver capability that the nation desperately needs to execute its defense strategy.”

To limit adversaries’ ability to develop defenses against the B-21, the Pentagon has revealed few details about the classified program, keeping it under wraps in the heavily guarded Palmdale, Calif., facility for seven years. Three graphic renderings, a drip-feed of information from the Pentagon and an image of the plane shrouded beneath a sheet in a 2015 Super Bowl ad for Northrop Grumman gave the public a glimpse of its appearance.

Over this past summer, the Pentagon permitted Northrop Grumman and other companies involved in the project to let employees acknowledge for the first time they were working on the program. For the best part of a decade, workers weren’t even able to tell their families.

Northrop Grumman is ready to begin testing the plane—taxiing it on the ground around the facility and eventually flying it—so the time had come to reveal it to the public, Air Force officials said.

“It’s a big airplane,” said Doug Young, Northrop Grumman’s B-21 program manager, who also worked on the B-2 program.

The Air Force hasn’t revealed how big, though analysts expect it to be smaller than its immediate predecessor the B-2 Spirit, introduced in the 1990s. Hit by cost and development challenges and skepticism in Congress about the plane’s role, Northrop Grumman built only 21 B-2s, rather than the 132 originally planned. That left each plane costing $2.2 billion in 2022 dollars.

The Air Force has said it would like at least 100 B-21s, and some leaders have called for more. So far, officials have said the plane is on or under budget. The Pentagon hasn’t made the cost and sustainment details public, but independent analysts expect the program to cost more than $100 billion in all if 100 planes are delivered.

Northrop Grumman said it leads 400 suppliers on the program, though the Pentagon has identified only six, including engine maker Pratt & Whitney, a unit of Raytheon Technologies Corp.

Stealthy, radar-evading jets have proved difficult and expensive to maintain. Northrop executives said the B-21 has been designed with existing parts and technology to lower costs and improve reliability.

“The B-21 is designed to be a daily flier,” said Tom Jones, head of the company’s aerospace unit.

 

[McReef]

Okay. Again:

1. Why would China bother attacking us? They already control a lot about our country; why would they want to kill their golden goose?

2. How would China attack us? Are they going to invade us? Where's their sealift? What's their plan to conquer the country? You're going to need to spell it out for me, because I don't see it happening.

The China fear porn here has never made much sense to me.

Fear porn aside, and without taking any position as regards war/no war, history would seem to indicate that the “golden goose” argument is not a valid one. I’m fact, history would seem to indicate the opposite is true.

Your second point appears to assume knowledge of our hypothetical opponent’s victory conditions. Another oft repeated historical foible.

Again, not taking a for/against position, it just seems you are taking a rather large leap there based on very little.

 

[Picton]

Fear porn aside, and without taking any position as regards war/no war, history would seem to indicate that the “golden goose” argument is not a valid one. I’m fact, history would seem to indicate the opposite is true.

Your second point appears to assume knowledge of our hypothetical opponent’s victory conditions. Another oft repeated historical foible.

Again, not taking a for/against position, it just seems you are taking a rather large leap there based on very little.

I'm not leaping. I'm speculating. All of us are. You misread my post: I was not claiming to know what was going to happen. I was challenging another poster's fear porn.

Same question to you, then: what's this "big one?" If it's not a China war, what is it?

And if it is a China war, how does that happen?

On the contrary: I'm not "assuming knowledge" of China's "victory conditions." I'm the one guessing there won't be a war...

 

[SFC13557]

One more time, China doesn't need nor want to attack/invade America. Their goal is to drive us out of the Pacific and replace us as the World's Superpower.
They believe the World should adopt THEIR political system, which is oppressive Communism. They want to dominate the World and force us to bow to them. Same as Little Puty but Russia doesn't have the economic power Chins/CCP has which we helped them develop.
Did anyone watch Apple's Tim Cook refuse to answer questions from FOX reporter on whether he supports protests in China and why he shut down an Apple file sharing app in China?
Our Elitists are owned by the CCP, which was always part of the plan.

 

[SFC13557]

I'm not leaping. I'm speculating. All of us are. You misread my post: I was not claiming to know what was going to happen. I was challenging another poster's fear porn.

Same question to you, then: what's this "big one?" If it's not a China war, what is it?

And if it is a China war, how does that happen?

On the contrary: I'm not "assuming knowledge" of China's "victory conditions." I'm the one guessing there won't be a war...

The "BIG ONE" is China attacking Taiwan and the US, Japan, Australia, NZ, etc. getting sucked into a Pacific War with the PLA.

 

[Picton]

The "BIG ONE" is China attacking Taiwan and the US, Japan, Australia, NZ, etc. getting sucked into a Pacific War with the PLA.

This time, I wasn't asking you. I was asking @McReef

 

[enbloc]

The Big One is coming...

 

[SFC13557]

This time, I wasn't asking you. I was asking @McReef

I'm helping McReef with a cheat sheet Picton.

 

[PappyM3]

View attachment 693381

Someone took his triple bourbon bacon cheeseburger

 

[7OGlock]

View attachment 693381

Has about as much credibility as any other assumption. Still sticking with it means he “wants funding though”

 

[McReef]

I'm not leaping. I'm speculating. All of us are. You misread my post: I was not claiming to know what was going to happen. I was challenging another poster's fear porn.

Same question to you, then: what's this "big one?" If it's not a China war, what is it?

And if it is a China war, how does that happen?

On the contrary: I'm not "assuming knowledge" of China's "victory conditions." I'm the one guessing there won't be a war...

I get it, and perhaps could have better worded my response.

The golden goose argument gets me fired up I guess. It is very common argument, and, it does seem to make logical sense. The problem is that it ignores human nature and historical precedent. It would actually make a better argument for rather than against war.

On the second point, I would tend to agree with your thoughts as they pertain to invasion. I was just trying to point out that invasion need not be on the menu at all for there to be war. Perhaps they don’t really need us or what we have to achieve their immediate goals and to set the desired course.