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‘The Big One Is Coming’ and the U.S. Military Isn’t Ready



If Japan aids Taiwan he will have NK launch missiles into Japan, why do you think NK has been launching missiles over Japan recently?

Because Japan lies between the DPRK and the U.S.

North Korea’s ICBM launches over/into the sea of a Japan have used a near vertical launch trajectory. They are tests to continue to increase the altitude of the apogee. That apogee from the launches going straight up informs them of how far they can effectively launch the missile if they aimed it at an appropriate angle. They aren’t done to scare Japan. They are done to scare the U.S.

Japan are just the poor saps who have to worry about DPRK mistakes.
 
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Uh huh.

Look, I'll be blunt: if Xi wants to take Taiwan, he'll take Taiwan and we won't stop him. Everybody knows that. It's not a mystery.

But. If I had a dollar for every time I've read fear-porn predictions to the tune of cHiNa'S gOnNa AtTaCk tAiWaN ToMoRroW!!!! I wouldn't have had to bother playing the lottery this week. It's one of NES' favorite topics. To read this site, China invaded Taiwan at least ten years ago and is halfway through completing an invasion of Montana right now.

I just think a HEALTHY grain of salt ought to be gnawed on whenever anyone talks about what China might or might not do militarily. I stand by my initial question, though: in what way could attacking any US forces militarily have ANY positive outcome for China?

I'm not clear that it does. Deterrent or not, there's no sense in it. Might something happen by accident, like that Hainan Island incident from 25ish years ago? Sure. Accidents happen. But we were a LOT more deterrent-minded back then, and China still used us like a rented mule. So I'm not sure this is anything new.
 
From Picton:

"I just think a HEALTHY grain of salt ought to be gnawed on whenever anyone talks about what China might or might not do militarily. I stand by my initial question, though: in what way could attacking any US forces militarily have ANY positive outcome for China? "

China will not attack US Forces as long as we cede the Pacific/Taiwan to him. He has warned us and told the world that Taiwan is part of Mainland China. Xi has stated he will "reunite" Taiwan with Mainland China and warned them NOT to seek Independance. He has stated he intends to do it either by coercion or force and warned the US, Japan, Australia, etc. not to interfere or we/they will face the force of the PLA. He's not kidding and according to intel he has a window ending in 2030. Xi is in his early 70's and like Putin he envisions himself as a Great Leader with a Mission, time is NOT on his side. Putin and Xi have long standing grievances against the West and believe they should rule the World.
We can either take Xi at his word and prepare or not. I believe him!
 
Also if they destroy America they'll have nobody to by their junk.... and that would be a serious problem for them it's kind of like a f***ed up codependent relationship... 🤣 their ultimate power move is using money to buy up property in America it doesn't really matter what the country is called if they own the assets.....
China will attack us when we stop buying their junk. When Covid hit, people realized that most of the things we need come from the CCP. Since then, we have slowly been building back our ability to make stuff here. Unfortunately, the biden administration is owned by the CCP so this has been a slow process so far. Once xiden gets out of the way, this process will increase. Once China is unable to sell shit here, BOOM! As far as owning land here, that will dissolve. Its only on paper and once we are at war, that is gone.
 
China will attack us when we stop buying their junk. When Covid hit, people realized that most of the things we need come from the CCP. Since then, we have slowly been building back our ability to make stuff here. Unfortunately, the biden administration is owned by the CCP so this has been a slow process so far. Once xiden gets out of the way, this process will increase. Once China is unable to sell shit here, BOOM! As far as owning land here, that will dissolve. Its only on paper and once we are at war, that is gone.

Never going to happen. There are too many monied Americans making bank reselling chinese garbage for that. The only reason some stuff shifted domestic is out of necessity not desire. Government cant even be bothered heavily incentivise US (or even US, Canada, Mexico) manufacturing.....
 
Never going to happen. There are too many monied Americans making bank reselling chinese garbage for that. The only reason some stuff shifted domestic is out of necessity not desire. Government cant even be bothered heavily incentivise US (or even US, Canada, Mexico) manufacturing.....

The one thing I see talked about repeatedly is the uptick in US manufactured micro chips. We have a long way to go but that shift seems to be happening. Another result of China’s takeover of Taiwan.
 

U.S. Allies Seek to Stop Former Military Pilots From Helping China​

Australia to review policies after investigation into training of Chinese aircrews raises concerns, following U.K.​

From Today's WSJ.

"SYDNEY—Australia will review its rules aimed at deterring former military personnel from aiding foreign adversaries, as U.S. allies grow concerned that China has recruited Western pilots and benefited from their technical expertise.

Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles said an investigation into whether former Australian personnel had provided training to China had raised concerns that justified a deeper examination of existing regulations. He declined to say whether any individual Australians had helped China, but said some cases remained under investigation.

“It’s really important that we have the most robust framework possible that is in place to protect Australia’s information and protect our secrets,” Mr. Marles said on Wednesday.
Key U.S. allies have expressed worries in recent weeks that China, which the Biden administration views as the greatest threat to American security, was trying to lure former pilots and erode the West’s military advantage. Last month, the U.K. Defense Ministry said it would take steps, including through legislation, to deter and penalize former military pilots who helped train the Chinese military.

The U.S. is also seeking to prosecute former pilots who may have helped China. Earlier this week, the Justice Department said Shapour Moinian, a former U.S. Army helicopter pilot who then worked for defense contractors, was sentenced to 20 months in prison for acting as an agent of the Chinese government and accepting money from its representatives in exchange for aviation-related information.

In a faxed reply to questions Wednesday, China’s Foreign Ministry effectively declined to comment, saying it wasn’t familiar with the situation.

The Biden administration recently released a new defense strategy that called for a concerted effort to deter Beijing in the coming decades. That prompted a response from Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian who said the paper was “driven ostensibly by a Cold War zero-sum mentality” and that China’s development strengthened world peace.

The U.S. and its allies rely in part on air power to deter China from taking more aggressive moves in the Indo-Pacific, and air maneuvers would likely be a key feature of any Chinese effort to invade Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own. Dozens of Chinese aircraft were involved in operations that simulated a blockade of Taiwan in August, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said at the time.

By working with former Western military pilots, even through civilian training schools, foreign adversaries such as China could glean information regarding standard operating procedures and doctrines about how Western air forces are run. Although current laws make it illegal to disclose state secrets, teaching foreign pilots how to fly may not be considered classified and could fall into a gray area, some defense experts said.

“It really to me sounds like they’re just tightening an existing loophole,” said Victor Abramowicz, a former Australian defense department employee who worked in intelligence and strategic areas and is now principal at Ostoya Consulting. “They might be aware of people who are considering job offers now, and this is saying to them, don’t get too close, because laws are going to change.”

Any effort by China or other foreign rivals to recruit British and Australian pilots would be concerning for U.S. defense officials. Last year, all three countries signed a security pact called Aukus that covers a range of military cooperation. U.S. troops train in northern Australia and the U.S. is investing in more military infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific region, including airfields that would become key in any military conflict.

One flight school, the Test Flying Academy of South Africa, has previously promoted its deep links with China. According to its website, the school has helped with aircraft testing in China since 2003, and in 2010 it created an academy in South Africa to train Chinese commercial airline pilots. A section of the website describing how the school also provides training for military pilots, including advanced fighter tactics and weapons instruction, was removed in October, according to cached versions of the site.

In a statement, the school said none of its training involves classified tactics or other information, and none of its trainers are in possession of legally or operationally sensitive information relating to the national-security interests of any country.

The school says it has been in contact with the U.K. Defense Ministry for years about its work, and the U.K. side hadn’t previously raised concerns.

In recent weeks, Australian authorities detained Daniel Edmund Duggan, who according to the website of his former company used to be a pilot for the U.S. Marines. More recently, he did work with an aviation consulting firm in China, according to his LinkedIn profile.

The U.S. requested that Australia arrest Mr. Duggan, there is a U.S. warrant for his arrest and the U.S. could seek to have Mr. Duggan extradited, Mr. Duggan’s lawyer, Dennis Miralis, told reporters last week in Sydney after a brief court hearing. Mr. Miralis said at the time he hadn’t seen an indictment from the U.S., but that Mr. Duggan denies breaching any laws.

U.S. officials have declined to comment on Mr. Duggan’s case."

—Alastair Gale contributed to this article.
And yet nothing happens to Boeing executives who literally walked Xi through their entire facility and then signed Chinese manufacturing deals which involves turning over ALL Boeing IP to the CCP. Who committed the crime, the ex-military guy who helped Chinese pilots learn to fly, or the multi-national corporation that literally gave them advanced production techniques for advanced aircraft?

 
2025 article. Things have changed, don’t you think?

Saw an interesting theory on how the world got to this place:

- Russia lived off raw material rents.
- The West lived off intellectual property rents.
- China lived off manufacturing rents.

Now all bets are off and the world manufacturing economy will look drastically different over the next five years.
 
2025 article. Things have changed, don’t you think?

Saw an interesting theory on how the world got to this place:

- Russia lived off raw material rents.
- The West lived off intellectual property rents.
- China lived off manufacturing rents.

Now all bets are off and the world manufacturing economy will look drastically different over the next five years.

Where's Snake Plissken with the button to send us back to the stone age when you need him.
 
2025 article. Things have changed, don’t you think?

Saw an interesting theory on how the world got to this place:

- Russia lived off raw material rents.
- The West lived off intellectual property rents.
- China lived off manufacturing rents.

Now all bets are off and the world manufacturing economy will look drastically different over the next five years.
I know you meant 2015 and yes, the world has changed in 7 yrs.
 
I dunno. F 'em.
Wasn't all that long ago my Father in Law, rest his soul, lost good friends and the majority of his mobility for the rest of his days jumping out of burning B24's not once but twice whilst helping save the Chinese from Japanese occupation.
 
We could use a Red Dawn situation. Get all those man bun soy drinkers out front. Yea yea I know. We will just need to round up the purple haired idiots once the invading enemy is handled. Simply switch the home grown enemies.
 
We could use a Red Dawn situation. Get all those man bun soy drinkers out front. Yea yea I know. We will just need to round up the purple haired idiots once the invading enemy is handled. Simply switch the home grown enemies.

You kidding? Those guys would be sympathizers and help the enemy any way they could. We may as well just shoot them first thing we get
 
You kidding? Those guys would be sympathizers and help the enemy any way they could. We may as well just shoot them first thing we get
The invaders would give them powers and they would literally turn on every local person they know that has firearms. Look how mad with power they went with Covid. the head of my town’s board of health is still saying that unvaccinated people should wear masks because they are the only ones who can catch and spread Covid, though she stopped trying to enforce it when she pulled that at a meeting a few months ago and was told by a few people to f*ck off.
 
When people talk about a Chinese military invasion, I always laugh and am reminded of a true story that happened in my industry years ago.
The owner of a supply company was religious, and had high moral standards. He had several customers that always asked for cash discounts and he always refused. They would tell him of other suppliers that did it, and pocketed the cash, off the books. So the holier than thou supplier dropped a dime on his competitor because he felt it was unfair. An investigation ensued and his competitor paid a hefty price. But so did a couple of his biggest customers. Net result was he put himself out of business.

China can not survive without a market for it's manufacturing. That market is the US. All other markets combined do not come close.

Another misconception I often hear is that everything produced in China is crap. Chinese manufacturers produce to spec. If a US company tells them they want cheap crap, that is what they will produce. China makes a ton of crap for the US market, but that is because the US company speced or accepted crap. Quality control aside, the Chinese will make your products however you want them to.

China's success is a direct result of American greed. And not just by American corporations. We can also thank US labor unions. When a US manufacturer has to pay a union auto worker $150 per hour, with wages, benefits, and pension, that vehicle is going to be a lot more expensive than the one produced in Mexico for $15 per hour.
Consumers also share a lot of the blame. Most US consumers will decide with their wallet how patriotic they are.

Direct, large scale, military conflict between the US and China is very unlikely.
 
You kidding? Those guys would be sympathizers and help the enemy any way they could. We may as well just shoot them first thing we get
Then, you will know your enemy and can take action. Right now our hands are tied. Because it seems no one wants to get involved. Don't get me wrong. I realize my expiration date would not be far off. But, I'll be damned if I don't go down without a fight
 
When people talk about a Chinese military invasion, I always laugh and am reminded of a true story that happened in my industry years ago.
The owner of a supply company was religious, and had high moral standards. He had several customers that always asked for cash discounts and he always refused. They would tell him of other suppliers that did it, and pocketed the cash, off the books. So the holier than thou supplier dropped a dime on his competitor because he felt it was unfair. An investigation ensued and his competitor paid a hefty price. But so did a couple of his biggest customers. Net result was he put himself out of business.

China can not survive without a market for it's manufacturing. That market is the US. All other markets combined do not come close.

Another misconception I often hear is that everything produced in China is crap. Chinese manufacturers produce to spec. If a US company tells them they want cheap crap, that is what they will produce. China makes a ton of crap for the US market, but that is because the US company speced or accepted crap. Quality control aside, the Chinese will make your products however you want them to.

China's success is a direct result of American greed. And not just by American corporations. We can also thank US labor unions. When a US manufacturer has to pay a union auto worker $150 per hour, with wages, benefits, and pension, that vehicle is going to be a lot more expensive than the one produced in Mexico for $15 per hour.
Consumers also share a lot of the blame. Most US consumers will decide with their wallet how patriotic they are.

Direct, large scale, military conflict between the US and China is very unlikely.
And yet the company in your example still shot themselves in the foot.
 
One more time, no one is talking about China "invading" mainland USA. The confrontation, War with China, will be over Taiwan and the South Pacific.

Again, Emperor Xi has promised to "reunite" Taiwan with Mainland China and wants the USA and Western Powers OUT of the South Pacific because they consider it their Sphere of Influence.

Just like Putin, China's leaders HATE the West and blame us for keeping them from being the World's Superpower. They have bided their time and sucked the Western world into depending on their manufacturing for cheap goods.

Over 20 yrs ago Deng urged them to slowly and quietly build their strength and power and only strike when they have overwhelming superiority. They have no plan to "invade" the US, they can choke us off in the Pacific and force us and the World into following their rules.

That is All!

Happy Veterans Day! 🇺🇸
 
Yes, but not intentionally. The Chicoms would be doing it intentionally and they are not that stupid.
I agree that it is highly unlikely, at least in the next 5-10 years. But they do a lot on their culture to save face. It is possible for them to start a military action which unintentional snowballs into all out war.

Also, with more of the developing world becoming customers, China needs us less and less as consumers.
 
If they do invade, they can be slowed down quite a bit by boobytrapping little red and gold gift boxes with hand grenades. 🤔

These things are like heroin to them and will not pass one up...

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