The Coming War With China Part 3

[Mountain]

... they have more amphibious vehicles that we have missiles and they have more troops than bullets we have. Think the rich cousin of Russia… we will run out of stuff before they run out of stuff….

It will be ugly but China will prevail.

Oh, and as much as I don’t like communism and socialism a quick read shows that Taiwan does belong technically to China…

Let the flames begin…

Apparently China owns you too?


Let's assume China has more amphibious vehicles than missiles (I doubt that). How do they get them where they want them before their carrier is sunk? China has ONE carrier that except for the electromagnetic catapult is what, several decades behind ours in technology? I could go on and on about how far behind is China.

So are you a nationalistic Chinese national or some sort of neocon with a defense-heavy investment portfolio?

(Shall I keep flaming?)

 

[Picton]

It will be ugly but China will prevail. I hope it doesn’t get to that but if it does…

Um.

You're going to have to define "prevail." Are you talking about a Chinese war against Taiwan, or a Chinese war against us?

 

[alx]

Apparently China owns you too?


Let's assume China has more amphibious vehicles than missiles (I doubt that). How do they get them where they want them before their carrier is sunk? China has ONE carrier that except for the electromagnetic catapult is what, several decades behind ours in technology? I could go on and on about how far behind is China.

So are you a nationalistic Chinese national or some sort of neocon with a defense-heavy investment portfolio?

(Shall I keep flaming?)

Sigh… I am far from a Chinese puppet and I greatly dislike what China has become. I am just a realist. The scenario I describe is playing out as we speak in Ukraine. Ukraine has 15 million people more than Taiwan and they are running out of soldiers despite the whole western world pumping weapons towards the good guys there. Currently Ukraine stands at 900k soldiers and is barely holding together with all our help. In comparison Taiwan has 170k military. China can gather 2.5 million and you better believe that when comrade Shi says “mobilization” they will reach those numbers fairly quickly. Do you -understand- the scope of those numbers? In addition, I have been to Taiwan several times on business- the average Taiwanese is not military material, but generally a digitally spoiled peace lover that has western values. The Chinese? It is what the mother party orders. No more- no less.

Once a war turns into war of attrition China and Russia have a distinct advantage.

And when I say prevail - I mean in a potential conflict in Taiwan of course. I do not think the US military can be beat in a conflict between established militaries. We have our problems after we win, but that is a different story.

 

[Chevy 2 65]

Hey, China stole our stupid-ship design!

They steal everything.

 

[alx]

They steal everything.

Literally. I work for a high tech Fortune 100 company that has presence in China. I got a call a few months ago that one of our products has issues and customers are calling our support folks. Pretty normal, right? The only issue is that the product in question still hasn’t hit the market. Turns out it has , but is a copy and bears our logo and support contact information. So somebody stole the engineering test beds, reverse engineered them, set up large manufacturing and distribution framework and is selling them for pennies on the dollar. We are talking $35-50k a pop (our price). Engagement with their authorities resulted in … nothing.

 

[Varmint]

If Taiwan belongs to China, then South Sudan still belongs to Sudan.

And we should give back Tejas to the Mexicans. Maybe we can give them California and call it even.

 

[alx]

And we should have back Tejas to the Mexicans. Maybe we can give them California and call it even.

About California- you might be onto something and might not be a bad thing

 

[Varmint]

Sigh… I am far from a Chinese puppet and I greatly dislike what China has become. I am just a realist. The scenario I describe is playing out as we speak in Ukraine. Ukraine has 15 million people more than Taiwan and they are running out of soldiers despite the whole western world pumping weapons towards the good guys there. In comparison Taiwan has 170k military. China can gather 2.5 million and you better believe that when comrade Shi says “mobilization” they will reach those numbers fairly quickly. In addition, I have been to Taiwan several times on business- the average Taiwanese is not military material, but generally a digitally spoiled peace lover that has western values. The Chinese? It is what the mother party orders. No more- no less.

Once a war turns into war of attrition China and Russia have a distinct advantage.

And when I say prevail - I mean in a potential conflict in Taiwan of course. I do not think the US military can be beat in a conflict between established militaries. We have our problems after we win, but that is a different story.

When I’m in Taiwan I try to start a revolution among the locals by crossing the street before the green walk sign. I don’t get any takers.

Despite the warmongering media, Taiwan’s military is a joke. You see French Mirage museum pieces flying over head, and the main naval base in Suao is guarded by a single 5” gun and an old two-rail missile launcher that looks like it hasn’t been used in decades.

 

[alx]

When I’m in Taiwan I try to start a revolution among the locals by crossing the street before the green walk sign. I don’t get any takers.

Despite the warmongering media, Taiwan’s military is a joke. You see French Mirage museum pieces flying over head, and the main naval base in Suao is guarded by a single 5” gun and an old two-rail missile launcher that looks like it hasn’t been used in decades.

May I suggest spitting your chewing gum on the sidewalk? That might have the desired (revolutionary) effect…

 

[Mountain]

Sigh… I am far from a Chinese puppet and I greatly dislike what China has become. I am just a realist. The scenario I describe is playing out as we speak in Ukraine. Ukraine has 15 million people more than Taiwan and they are running out of soldiers despite the whole western world pumping weapons towards the good guys there. Currently Ukraine stands at 900k soldiers and is barely holding together with all our help. In comparison Taiwan has 170k military. China can gather 2.5 million and you better believe that when comrade Shi says “mobilization” they will reach those numbers fairly quickly. Do you -understand- the scope of those numbers? In addition, I have been to Taiwan several times on business- the average Taiwanese is not military material, but generally a digitally spoiled peace lover that has western values. The Chinese? It is what the mother party orders. No more- no less.

Once a war turns into war of attrition China and Russia have a distinct advantage.

And when I say prevail - I mean in a potential conflict in Taiwan of course. I do not think the US military can be beat in a conflict between established militaries. We have our problems after we win, but that is a different story.

Aha- Taiwan. I misunderstood your comments to be in general.

Honestly, the way prevent China from overrunning Taiwan is partly economic and partly making the hard military decisions what to target in China. We take out a few dams including Three Gorges and China loses ~100 million people and much of their industrial capacity along with a good chunk of hydropower. We could cripple what little blue water navy they have in a couple days if not instantly.

The internal Chinese economy is hurting. If it were not for exports, China would be having an unprecedented economic crisis. They also rely on imports for a lot of critical raw materials. War throws a wrench in everything that is propping them up right now.

Having a massive army and being able to project power globally are two different things. China has aggressive goals for global power projection, but they remain far behind the US in that regard. I've been going to China, Taiwan, and many of the other big Asian nations since 2010, so I'm familiar with the situation. The average Chinese isn't military material either, but with those massive numbers they'll have enough who are and yes- those numbers dwarf Taiwan's.

 

[Waher]

View: https://twitter.com/LawrenceSellin/status/1789995250066362621

 

[Picton]

China probably doesn't need to invade Taiwan.

Based on what I'm hearing and reading about the present state of the Taiwan populace, I suspect many of them would go along with a Chinese takeover along the lines of what happened in HK: China assumes control, but the place retains a lot of what made it distinctive. Leaders get quietly spirited away or liquidated, a new set of Beijing-installed leaders slips into place, and presto. Fait accompli.

Everyone wins. Taiwan stays "peaceful" and "prosperous," China gets the revenue, and production is unaffected. Until a revolt starts about ten or fifteen years down the road, but by then the Chinese will have mechanisms in place to deal with that calmly, I imagine.

 

[PappyM3]

China probably doesn't need to invade Taiwan.

Based on what I'm hearing and reading about the present state of the Taiwan populace, I suspect many of them would go along with a Chinese takeover along the lines of what happened in HK: China assumes control, but the place retains a lot of what made it distinctive. Leaders get quietly spirited away or liquidated, a new set of Beijing-installed leaders slips into place, and presto. Fait accompli.

Everyone wins. Taiwan stays "peaceful" and "prosperous," China gets the revenue, and production is unaffected. Until a revolt starts about ten or fifteen years down the road, but by then the Chinese will have mechanisms in place to deal with that calmly, I imagine.

That’s Pooh Bear’s preferred option. But I’m not sure about the Taiwanese populace being okay with it, Taiwan just elected an independence-minded president. China is not happy about that.

 

[NHCraigT]

MSN

China Builds World's First Dedicated Drone Carrier - Naval News

China has built the world's first dedicated drone carrier. The ship has not been reported however and many of the circumstances surrounding it remain a mystery.

www.navalnews.com

China navy secretly built what could be world's first drone aircraft carrier: report
.... The report cited the vessel's flight deck length, which it said is about one-third the length and half the width of a Chinese or US Navy aircraft carrier. It's also roughly half the length of China's amphibious assault ships that launch manned helicopters, suggesting that the new ship's flight deck is designed for fewer helicopters or smaller aircraft like drones....

View: https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1790670760018682182?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1790670760018682182%7Ctwgr%5E1ee5cf9e4e4a76c30785e754ea8a465eef3ec3c9%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Fchina-navy-likely-built-world-first-drone-carrier-report-taiwan-2024-5

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[Woodsloafer]

China probably doesn't need to invade Taiwan.

Based on what I'm hearing and reading about the present state of the Taiwan populace, I suspect many of them would go along with a Chinese takeover along the lines of what happened in HK: China assumes control, but the place retains a lot of what made it distinctive. Leaders get quietly spirited away or liquidated, a new set of Beijing-installed leaders slips into place, and presto. Fait accompli.

Everyone wins. Taiwan stays "peaceful" and "prosperous," China gets the revenue, and production is unaffected. Until a revolt starts about ten or fifteen years down the road, but by then the Chinese will have mechanisms in place to deal with that calmly, I imagine.

Yep, I think you are right, look at the communist takeover of our country/government, it has been pretty docile for the most part, one more election cycle with Biden in for another term and the transformation will be fully set in place.

 

[Chevy 2 65]

Literally. I work for a high tech Fortune 100 company that has presence in China. I got a call a few months ago that one of our products has issues and customers are calling our support folks. Pretty normal, right? The only issue is that the product in question still hasn’t hit the market. Turns out it has , but is a copy and bears our logo and support contact information. So somebody stole the engineering test beds, reverse engineered them, set up large manufacturing and distribution framework and is selling them for pennies on the dollar. We are talking $35-50k a pop (our price). Engagement with their authorities resulted in … nothing.

Happened to Crestron.

 

[1sern]

May I suggest spitting your chewing gum on the sidewalk? That might have the desired (revolutionary) effect…

Sounds like you were in Singapore and don't know the difference lol

 

[1sern]

You see French Mirage museum pieces

You mean those Mirage 2000's that were bought in the 90's? A lot newer than some of the stuff the other side flies.

 

[alx]

Sounds like you were in Singapore and don't know the difference lol

In Singapore you are pretty much not allowed to own or chew gum. I imagine it is some sort of assault chewing gum. Well, I don’t remember exactly but first time before I went there I was told not to chew gum anywhere. In Taiwan on the other hand you can chew on the street (but not in buildings and public transportation), but if you spit it on the ground and they see you- you get fined. Not to mention chewing gum is a universal sign of lack of respect in that region of the world… but my point was that they have some stupid little laws that they take very seriously, but defending their country at least by my observations and conversations I had with the Taiwanese is not very high on their list.

 

[1sern]

In Singapore you are pretty much not allowed to own or chew gum. I imagine it is some sort of assault chewing gum. Well, I don’t remember exactly but first time before I went there I was told not to chew gum anywhere. In Taiwan on the other hand you can chew on the street (but not in buildings and public transportation), but if you spit it on the ground and they see you- you get fined. Not to mention chewing gum is a universal sign of lack of respect in that region of the world… but my point was that they have some stupid little laws that they take very seriously, but defending their country at least by my observations and conversations I had with the Taiwanese is not very high on their list.

Not in the subway for sure but that's the only place I know about them caring about food or drink, I think you got some bad speculation/advice. Google bin lang, they spit that shit everywhere. I'm not sure about chewing gum being a sign of disrespect as I don't, not covering your mouth while using a toothpick is but digging a booger out of a nose isn't. They're not as bad as Chinese but I do remember seeing some guy pissing on a tree about a block or two from Qing Qong Lu where the presidential palace is while i was walking with a local and she was shocked. Flicking cig butts isn't either.
As far as defending TW. It'll depend who you talk to, enough are patriotic but few want military life.

 

[1sern]

When I’m in Taiwan I try to start a revolution among the locals by crossing the street before the green walk sign. I don’t get any takers.

I couldn't get near stinky tofu carts and would cross 4 lane roads to GTF away from walking near them.
I did like some of them doing the right turn on red on their scooters. Turn right on red, drive 20 feet, do a U'ey, drive back to the intersection, turn right .

 

[Varmint]

I couldn't get near stinky tofu carts and would cross 4 lane roads to GTF away from walking near them.
I did like some of them doing the right turn on red on their scooters. Turn right on red, drive 20 feet, do a U'ey, drive back to the intersection, turn right .

I can’t say anything cause I’ve been known to do that maneuver in my car in the US.

Right turn on red is illegal in Taiwan also.

You cannot avoid the bad smells in Taiwan, there’s always some smell, pee, poop. Maybe that’s stinky tofu I don’t know.

 

[1sern]

I can’t say anything cause I’ve been known to do that maneuver in my car in the US.

Right turn on red is illegal in Taiwan also.

You cannot avoid the bad smells in Taiwan, there’s always some smell, pee, poop. Maybe that’s stinky tofu I don’t know.

Illegal? Saw it done in Taipei a lot.
Stinky tofu? Smells like nasty, nasty, garbage

 

[The Ugly]

as a historian;

the chinese are not battle tested at all

vietnam was a shit show for them back in the day

they have plenty of enemies, as we allies all like minded

if we took a position of strength coupled with a commitment of deterrence they would not even risk war

*** not FJB brandon's policies